(NewsNation) — Last year, record-high diesel prices squeezed margins at logistics companies across the country but as those rates have fallen a new challenge has emerged: low demand.
“Now, we’re in a situation where there are too many trucks for available loads,” said Todd Spencer, president of the Owner–Operator Independent Drivers Association.
The reduced freight activity represents a marked shift from just one year ago when pent-up consumer demand far exceeded supply as retailers struggled to maintain inventory levels.
Last week, the president of J.B. Hunt, one the nation’s largest trucking companies, declared a “freight recession.” It’s a development that could signal a broader downturn in the U.S. economy.
In March, the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) Truck Tonnage Index, which is an indicator of demand, fell 5.4% from the month prior. It’s the largest monthly drop since the start of the pandemic in April 2020,
That index largely takes into account contract freight, but data suggests the spot freight market has been hit much harder.
The “spot market,” which smaller carriers are more likely to rely on, is the one-time price to move a load based on the current market rate. Spot load postings last month were down nearly 70% compared to March of last year, according to DAT Freight & Analytics.
NewsNation first met independent trucker Gordy Reimer when his business Freight Horse Express LLC was rolling last year. Now, he has multiple rigs parked, along with new trailer beds which are stacked and unused.
“People were paying between $25 to $30,000 for an import container,” said Reimer. “That demand today on the spot market is down around $1,000.”
As trucking demand has fallen, so have diesel prices. Today, a gallon of diesel costs $4.17 on average, down from an all-time high of $5.82 last June, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).
Benchmark diesel futures are down nearly 25% this year and domestic demand is down 8.4% since the same time last year, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. This is another sign of the nation’s industrial slowdown.
“Diesel demand being down is a harbinger of something, frankly, much worse,” said Joe Rajkovacz, the director of governmental affairs and communications for the Western States Trucking Association.
Rajkovacz said many small business truckers got in at the peak of the market and now find themselves saddled with expensive equipment. He says some have already gone out of business.
In a typical year, summer produce coming out of places like California can boost spot trucking rates but Rajkovacz fears this year’s storms have made that less likely.
Other freight indicators also point to an economic slowdown.
Container imports at U.S. ports are down compared to last year and on Wall Street transportation stocks have fallen in recent months.
Consumer spending rose at a 1% annual rate last quarter, the weakest quarterly gain in consumer spending since COVID-19 arrived in the spring of 2020. Spending on physical goods, like appliances and furniture, also fell for a fourth straight quarter.