AVENTURA, Fla. (NewsNation) — Holiday retail sales are estimated to be higher than last year to the tune of more than $950 billion in spending by about 130 million Americans.
Approximately 75% of Americans plan on doing some sort of shopping on Black Friday and over the weekend. Retail sales are estimated to climb more than 3% from 2022.
Millennials of all people are also fueling some of the Black Friday flames with spending among Gen Z’ers up 15%.
Some economists believe this holiday shopping season could be recording-setting and possibly determine the direction of the economy going into 2024.
“Historically, think of Black Friday as a start. But really, most experts are saying it begins around the first of November in earnest,” said Indiana University professor John Talbott. “And over the last few shopping years, it’s continued to kind of start earlier and earlier.”
Talbott’s prediction of holiday shopping acting as a bellwether may spell trouble 2024.
Retailers are kicking off the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season with a bevy of discounts and other enticements. But executives are growing concerned with a spending slowdown that could temper sales on the day after Thanksgiving as well as throughout the holidays.
Shoppers, powered by a solid job market and steady wage growth, had demonstrated a resilience that confounded economists and ran counter to sour sentiments expressed in opinion polls. Such spending, while cautious, came despite higher prices in the grocery aisle and higher borrowing costs.
But consumers are now coming under more pressure from dwindling savings, increased credit card debt and still stubborn inflation. In fact, shoppers cut their buying in October, ending six straight months of gains. Shoppers have gotten some relief from easing inflation, but many goods and services like meat and rent are still far higher than they were just three years ago.
The latest quarterly results from a string of retailers from Walmart to Best Buy have reported a weakening consumer. Walmart said it noticed shoppers cutting back in October and offered a muted annual sales outlook. Best Buy, the nation’s largest retailer, said shoppers are trading down to cheaper TVs. And Target said shoppers are waiting longer to buy items. For example, instead of buying sweatshirts or denim back in August or September, they held out until the weather turned cold.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.