(NewsNation) — Are we finally getting a break from home mortgages rates hovering around seven percent? Probably not yet, according to two experts who predict the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates after this week’s bi-monthly meeting.
“A July Federal Reserve interest rate cut is unlikely,” Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride. “The Fed will instead guide expectations toward a September rate move, pending continued improvement on the inflation front,” he added.
“Given the improving CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data that’s been coming out over the past few months, I fully expect them to cut in September at their next meeting,” said Derek Horstmeyer, Professor of finance at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.
The current Federal Funds Rate is at a 23-year high of between 5.25% and 5.50%. The Fed usually increases or decreases the Federal Funds Rate in one-quarter percent increments. Horstmeyer expects that pattern to hold in September.
McBride said that could change depending on the national unemployment rate. It has slowly risen from 3.5% in December of 2023 to 4.1% in June.
“If the job market were to show softening at an alarming rate, the first rate cut in September could be a half-percentage point cut,” said McBride. “We’d likely get plenty of advance notice if that comes to pass.”
Regardless of the size of the predicted rate cut in September, Horstmeyer says it won’t be the last cut this year.
“We’re looking at the Fed Funds Rate going down to 4.5% by the start of the year,” he told “NewsNation Now.”
The Federal Funds Rate is the benchmark for how banks and other lenders set their rates, especially for home mortgages. Bankrate says the national average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.91%, and 6.37% for a 15-year fixed mortgage.