(NewsNation) — The “October surprise” is a “huge myth” in American politics, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula.
Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.
“My system is based upon the fundamental forces that drive elections. … It’s governing, not campaigning, that counts,” Lichtman said on NewsNation’s “CUOMO.” “I’ve always made my predictions before then (October), and I never change them.”
Frank Luntz, a renowned Republican pollster and communications consultant, said polling this year is not indicative of virtually anything.
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Lichtman is “brilliant,” and “he’s proven it through decades of success,” Luntz said.
Lichtman previously told “NewsNation Live” that “cataclysmic events” have had a mixed but important effect on the keys assessing the White House party’s strength and performance. If six keys go against the White House party, his system predicts a loss, he explained.
Those indicators: Party mandate, party contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military policy failure, foreign/military policy success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
Looking ahead to November, eight of the keys favor Harris, while three do not, according to Lichtman. The final two keys — foreign policy success and failure — could go either way but won’t sway the final outcome, he predicted.
NewsNation’s Katie Smith contributed to this report.