Is confronting Russia’s food blockade worth the risk?

J.J. Bullock

2 years ago

(NewsNation) —Ukrainian officials are growing increasingly worried the country’s keys shipments of grain, which help feed population around the globe, might be unable to be shipped if a Russian naval blockade in the Black sea cannot be vanquished.

It is that fear and desire to send one of Ukraine’s largest exports around the globe that sparked a recent military operation by Ukraine to take Snake Island, a key position in the Black Sea, from Russia.

Ukraine is the world’s 5th largest exporter of wheat and 4th largest exporter of corn, there is currently 25 million tons of Ukrainian grain waiting to be shipped. It supplies 50% of the world’s oilseed which is found in vegetable oils, pharmaceuticals and live stock feeds.

If Russia’s naval blockade persists, a global food shortage could be on the horizon. The feeding of millions of people around the globe could very well now depend on Ukraine’s ability to defeat the Russian naval blockade.

An aerial view shows a tractor spreading fertiliser on a wheat field near the village of Yakovlivka after it was hit by an aerial bombardment outside Kharkiv, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, April 5, 2022. The wheat has been sown for the coming season but nobody in the farming village knows if it will be harvested. “We have planted all the wheat. But will we be able to grow anything and harvest it under the current circumstances?” said Vadim Aleksandrovich, director of Granary of Sloboda, a farming company that emerged from a former Soviet-era collective farm. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Thomas Peter SEARCH “YAKOVLIVKA” FOR THIS STORY. SEARCH “WIDER IMAGE” FOR ALL STORIES

Ukraine has stepped up maritime battles in the war, targeting Russian oil rigs, ships and military positions in the pivotal waters of the Black Sea. The recent attack on Russian placements on Snake Island, which Russia claims it repelled, show Ukraine is recognizing the war in the sea is a crucial next step in its war.

Seth Crospey, a former undersecretary in the U.S. Navy, believes a re-flagging operation to escort Ukrainian merchant ships through the Black Sea would help mitigate the problem.

“There would be a coalition, as I recommend, of friendly countries and it would be large enough so the Russians would be discouraged from attacking ships,” Crospey said on NewsNation’s “On Balance: with Leland Vittert.

Crospey said the risk of Russia attacking coalition ships, thus sparking a larger worldwide war, could be worth avoiding the food crisis that could be caused by Ukrainian grain being stuck in the country. He said that would lead to food shortages in the U.S. as well.

“One of the points that really is important here is that 25 million tons is last year’s harvest,” Crospey said. “If those silos are not emptied, what happens to the grain and food that is being grown right now that will be harvested a month from now?”