Vice President Harris is inching ahead in national polling, but her campaign has struggled to gain traction with young Latinos, a source of worry for some Democratic strategists.
At the same time, former President Trump, strategists say, has continued to make inroads with the demographic, helping to boost his candidacy in key battleground states.
“There is definitely a problem with young Latino men who haven’t gone to college,” said Chuck Rocha, the prominent Democratic strategist who helped Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) target the Hispanic vote during his presidential bids. “Is Trump doing better than he should be doing? Absolutely.”
It’s not so much that they’re drawn to Trump, Rocha said. “But they’ve never been pulled in by the Democratic Party. They’re hearing one candidate talking about keeping jobs in America and draining the swamp, while the other party talks about abortion or whatever the social issue of the day is.”
But Harris campaign operatives on the ground tell a different story.
“I don’t think that narrative is fair. I think with what I’ve seen with my experience volunteering with the with the Harris campaign, they do go out and reach out to these, a lot of times, low-income communities, you know, these communities that have a lot of individuals who have a lot of hard-labor jobs, blue-collar jobs or just didn’t go to college,” said Jesús Rendón, a Phoenix native and senior at Arizona State University who volunteers for Harris.
Rendón added that the Harris-Walz campaign has opened offices in South Phoenix and Maryvale, two parts of Phoenix with large low-income communities.
“They are targeting these communities by, you know, hosting events in these specific offices. And I think the Harris campaign has really been pushing to acknowledge as well as engage with these individuals, and they’re doing this every day.”
Still, Trump is polling ahead of Harris in a couple of battleground states, according to a New York Times/Siena survey out Monday, while some downballot Democrats are seen beating Republicans, underscoring a theory among some Democrats that these states are still winnable. In Arizona, for example, a critical state with a large and young Hispanic population, Democratic Senate hopeful Rep. Ruben Gallego is running 6 percentage points ahead of his opponent, Kari Lake. The same survey also shows Trump with a 5-point lead over Harris.
The Harris campaign’s disadvantages relative to Gallego are threefold.
Reproductive rights — the vice president’s strongest issue — resonates more clearly with Latinas; Gallego can run a sole-scraping campaign that’s unrealistic for a presidential candidate; and Trump is generally more popular than GOP nominee Lake.
But Democrats are worried that Gallego, a former Marine with Latino roots, might hold an intangible advantage over Harris. He has spent time luring the same voters — Hispanic and young, primarily — who are likely to cast ballots for Trump.
“In many ways, they see themselves in him, and that’s what Gallego has sought to do,” one Democratic strategist said.
Fernand Amandi, another Democratic strategist, said he’s skeptical that Trump is in fact winning in the state. But even if he is, Amandi predicted Gallego would help boost Harris.
“The Gallego campaign is not distancing itself from the Harris campaign. They’re doing the opposite,” he said, adding that they would keep making the case in the remaining weeks of the race.
“If Gallego wins by more than 8 points, Kamala is carrying the state — it doesn’t matter what happens,” he added.
But Democratic operative Rodell Mollineau said the New York Times poll is also reflective of Lake. “It likely has more to do with how tarnished Kari Lake’s record is than it has to do with Harris.”
In Nevada, polls show Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) also running ahead of Harris, indicating that young Latinos’ personal identification with Gallego is only a piece of the puzzle.
Like Gallego, Rosen can spend more time on the ground and is facing a Republican who trails Trump in popularity, and like Harris, she has leaned into reproductive rights as a pillar of her campaign.
That focus seems to be resonating with young Latinas. Voter registration group Voto Latino claimed about 70,000 new registrations in battleground states between late July and mid-September, 86 percent of whom were under 40, and nearly 70 percent female.
But the Harris campaign says it is molding the reproductive rights message to better reach young Latinos.
“It’s not, you know, something that affects me where I’ll have to, you know, make a decision for my body. I have two sisters. The Harris campaign has really been, you know, acknowledging that — it’s about acknowledging whether someone would be your sister, your cousin, your prima, you know, tu amiga or even someone closer to you in your family,” Rendón said.
“What I’ve seen is there’s a lot of enthusiasm to be able to acknowledge these issues, see yourself in the shoes of others. And I know I definitely see that, and I’m speaking for a lot of other young Latino men when they say, you know, looking at [themselves in] the shoes of someone that they’re close with.”
Reproductive rights, however, poll higher among Latinas than among Latinos. According to an UnidosUS poll conducted in August, 22 percent of Hispanic women said abortion was a top-three issue, while 16 percent of men said the same.
On immigration, the tables were turned: 27 percent of Latinos in the same poll listed that issue as a top three priority, compared to 22 percent of Latinas.
Inflation was by far the top issue for both men and women, with 58 percent and 59 percent, respectively, ranking cost of living as a priority topic.
Though Harris has held her lead on reproductive rights and made some progress effacing Trump’s hold on economic issues, Democrats still face a unique challenge making their case on immigration.
“There’s a group of voters in Arizona who are very much invested in figuring out a pathway to citizenship and helping undocumented immigrants, and then I think there are probably voters in Arizona who are very much looking through this, through the prism of the economy and border security,” said Kristian Ramos, a Democratic strategist.
“It’s smart of her to talk about border security, it’s smart of her to talk about the economy, but it would also be smart of her to talk about, you know, helping fix our broken immigration system. And she has. So I think that’s where it’s just like, what audience is she talking to at any given time?”
In border states such as Arizona, young Latinos can have seemingly opposing views on border security and immigration reform, two issues that tend to blend together on the national stage.
That can make it even harder for presidential campaigns, with their lack of face time, to reach those voters.
“They need to run a campaign specifically to these men around working-class, economic, populism rooted in family — taking care of your wife and children and talking about the responsibilities of being a father, brother and a son,” Rocha said.
Another Democratic strategist agreed that the Harris campaign needs to do a better job speaking directly to younger Latino men, calling their lack of identity politics a “major mistake.”
“You do it through the inverse of dog-whistle campaigns,” the strategist said. “In the same way that [Tim] Walz is a permission structure for white voters. They need the Walz equivalent for Hispanics.
“When someone is unknown in the community, you need trusted validators to make the case and close the sale.”