Analysis: Tracking the 2024 Iowa caucuses

In his victory speech, former President Donald Trump said it’s time for the country to “come together” as he moves on to New Hampshire. He vowed to “drill baby drill” and “seal up the border” if he is reelected.

Reacting to Donald Trump’s win in Iowa, President Joe Biden said the 2024 election “was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans.” He urged supporters to donate to his campaign.

Per a campaign official, Vivek Ramaswamy will be suspending his presidential campaign. The biotech entrepreneur burst onto the scene last summer and got a surge in the polls but ultimately failed to gain traction in Iowa, where he finished fourth.

NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ projects that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will finish second in the Republican Iowa caucus. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is projected to finish third.

Donald Trump is taking the stage to deliver his victory speech. Watch in the player above.

With 92% of the vote reported, Ron DeSantis appears to be closing in on a second place finish. As of 10:40 p.m. ET, he had 19,650 votes for 21.3%, compared to Nikki Haley’s 17,616 or 19.1%.

See full results here.

A few dozen supporters have gathered at Nikki Haley’s watch party in West Des Moines as they wait for her to take the stage.

— Field report from Kristen Eskow

With about 40% of the vote reported, Ron DeSantis’ lead over Nikki Haley for second place continues to grow. As of 10 p.m. ET, DeSantis was at 20% with 8,757 votes compared to Haley’s 18.8% with 8,231 votes.

See the results here.

A huge chunk of results was just reported, and Ron DeSantis is running nearly a point ahead of Nikki Haley for second place. As of 9:45 p.m. ET, DeSantis was at 20.1% with 8,339 votes compared to Haley’s 7,992 votes, good for 19.3%. A total of 33% of precincts have reported.

Donald Trump’s share of the lead was at 52% with 21,511 votes.

Republican presidential candidates faced their first test of 2024 in Iowa on Monday. What happens from here? NewsNation political editor Chris Stirewalt says the outcome of the Iowa caucuses might get weird.

Stirewalt thinks voter turnout and the potential for Democratic voters to cross over could shake things up. He made his analysis before the Iowa race was called by Decision Desk HQ.

Author and journalist Bill O’Reilly said there was “never any doubt” in his mind that MAGA voters would turn out for Donald Trump in Iowa. He believes Ron DeSantis is “through” and thinks Nikki Haley is going to “get waxed” in South Carolina.

Ron DeSantis’ campaign has criticized news outlets’ decisions to project Donald Trump the winner of the Iowa caucus, equating it to “election interference.”

“Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote,” spokesman Andrew Romeo said on X. “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.”

As of 9:05 p.m. ET, Ron DeSantis held a three-vote lead over Nikki Haley for second place without about 1% of the vote reported. The final result will be important for providing a boost heading into the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary.

See results here.

NewsNation/DDHQ calls the Iowa Republican caucuses for former President Donald Trump, who appears to have won by wide margins. The race for second place is neck and neck between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

Results are starting to come in, and the first batch has Trump in the lead. He’s garnered 75% of the vote across five counties that have reported. See the results here.

Before the caucuses began, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley pulled ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the second-place ranking in polling.

Haley joined “On Balance” to discuss whether she would consider selecting former President Donald Trump as her vice president.

At a West Des Moines caucus site (where Nikki Haley’s watch party happens to be), there was a “good amount” of crossover caucusgoers. This refers to voters who changed their party affiliation to “Republican” to be able to caucus tonight.

The site is getting decent turnout.

— Field report from Kellie Meyer

The precinct captain and caucus chair say there’s good turnout at the Sioux Center Christian School, where an estimated 300 people have gathered.

However, it’s not comparable to previous cycles because of redistricting. There are two precincts at this location, whereas in the past, there were four.

The caucus began with a prayer and the Pledge of Allegiance.

— Field report from Jackie Koppell

Results will be updated as they come in. They can be found here.

Officials in Story County tell NewsNation turnout has been low at the Iowa State University Memorial Union, where there are four caucus sites.

Officials said it could be because students were off for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday Monday, and classes were canceled for Tuesday. It means a lot of students who may have caucused aren’t showing.

Story County was big for Marco Rubio in 2016 (32%), and low turnout could impact Nikki Haley this go-around.

— Field report from Libbey Dean

Caucusing is now underway across Iowa.

Donald Trump lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz because he lost the evangelical vote. Trump told NewsNation’s Libbey Dean that he learned a lot from that loss.

In 2008, Mike Huckabee, the ex-governor of Arkansas, secured victory in Iowa by capturing the evangelical vote. He joins “On Balance” to explain why he thinks Trump is appealing to evangelical voters.

The “On Balance” team went to rallies of each of the GOP presidential candidates to get a look at what might come as Iowans head to the polls.

Two-thirds of 2024 GOP Iowa caucusgoers identify as evangelical Christians, a group that has largely supported former President Donald Trump.

Timothy Head, executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, joins NewsNation’s “Elizabeth Vargas Reports” to discuss the role faith will play in the results of the Iowa caucuses, saying Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley both have some support from evangelicals.

Iowa is just the first state in the 2024 election calendar and other dates are fast approaching, including the New Hampshire primary next week. We put together a list of all the primary and caucus dates so you can mark your calendars. Take a look here.

Although Ron DeSantis‘ fellow Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is still leading in the polls, the Florida governor is confident about his chances going into the Republican primaries.

“Donald Trump is running focused mostly on his issues. I’m running focused on your issues and your family’s issues and this country’s future,” DeSantis told NewsNation’s Marni Hughes Tuesday ahead of the Iowa caucuses. “We need a president that can go in, serve two terms and deliver the type of change that I delivered in Florida.”

Read more about what he said here.

The Iowa caucuses are just the first test Republican presidential candidates will face in their race toward the GOP nomination and eventual battle for the Oval Office.

There’s a wide field of candidates, so to help voters be more informed about who they are choosing to represent them, NewsNation has created a voter guide.

Not only have we broken down each candidate’s political views by issue, we have created a comparative guide so you can see how each candidate differs in their stance on the same issue.

Here are some handy links to get you started:

Candidates’ policy positions:

• Former President Donald Trump
• Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
• Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy
• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
• Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Comparative analysis:

• Where Republican candidates stand on artificial intelligence
• Social Security, Medicare: Where GOP candidates stand on retirement benefits
• Inflation, economy: What GOP presidential candidates say they will do
• Abortion: Where do GOP presidential candidates stand on the issue?
• Where 2024 Republican candidates stand on education
• Fentanyl, opioids: What are the 2024 Republican candidates’ policies?
• Border and immigration: Where Republican candidates stand
• Are immigration issues making voters more conservative?
• Where GOP candidates stand on conflicts in Israel, Ukraine, China

Once a favored method of presidential nominations, caucuses have been replaced by primary elections in several states throughout the years.

Both methods have their supporters and critics, but Iowa’s Republicans have stood by the caucus process, which often has major implications for the presidential election.

Caucuses are meetings run by political parties rather than the government and are hosted at the county, district or precinct level. They don’t all operate the same. Some choose candidates by casting secret ballots, while others divide into groups based on the candidate they support. Each group then gives speeches to try to persuade others to back their candidate.

Caucuses don’t directly elect a presidential candidate. They do, however, determine the number of state delegates who will vote for the caucus winner at the national convention.

The number of delegates given to each candidate is based on the number of caucus votes they receive.

Alternatively, primary elections are hosted by the government and allow individual voters to cast a ballot in favor of their favorite candidates running for office.

READ MORE ABOUT CAUCUSES AND PRIMARIES HERE.