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Analysis: Tracking the 2024 Iowa caucuses

(NewsNation) — The first race of the 2024 presidential election cycle began Monday in Iowa as Republicans gathered at churches, schools and auditoriums around the state to declare their preference for their candidate for the GOP ticket.

Former President Donald Trump dominated the polls for weeks, though other candidates — former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinsonspent the last weeks braving the cold to woo Republican voters in their favor.


NewsNation had live special coverage throughout the evening with a host of political experts on hand to help explain the process, trends and any surprises.

See the results of the 2024 Iowa caucuses here and look back at NewsNation’s analysis in the blog below.

In his victory speech, former President Donald Trump said it’s time for the country to “come together” as he moves on to New Hampshire. He vowed to “drill baby drill” and “seal up the border” if he is reelected.

Tyler Wornell

Reacting to Donald Trump’s win in Iowa, President Joe Biden said the 2024 election “was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans.” He urged supporters to donate to his campaign.

Tyler Wornell

Per a campaign official, Vivek Ramaswamy will be suspending his presidential campaign. The biotech entrepreneur burst onto the scene last summer and got a surge in the polls but ultimately failed to gain traction in Iowa, where he finished fourth.

Tyler Wornell

NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ projects that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will finish second in the Republican Iowa caucus. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is projected to finish third.

Tyler Wornell

Donald Trump is taking the stage to deliver his victory speech. Watch in the player above.

Tyler Wornell

With 92% of the vote reported, Ron DeSantis appears to be closing in on a second place finish. As of 10:40 p.m. ET, he had 19,650 votes for 21.3%, compared to Nikki Haley’s 17,616 or 19.1%.

See full results here.

Tyler Wornell

A few dozen supporters have gathered at Nikki Haley’s watch party in West Des Moines as they wait for her to take the stage.

— Field report from Kristen Eskow

Tyler Wornell

With about 40% of the vote reported, Ron DeSantis’ lead over Nikki Haley for second place continues to grow. As of 10 p.m. ET, DeSantis was at 20% with 8,757 votes compared to Haley’s 18.8% with 8,231 votes.

See the results here.

Tyler Wornell

A huge chunk of results was just reported, and Ron DeSantis is running nearly a point ahead of Nikki Haley for second place. As of 9:45 p.m. ET, DeSantis was at 20.1% with 8,339 votes compared to Haley’s 7,992 votes, good for 19.3%. A total of 33% of precincts have reported.

Donald Trump’s share of the lead was at 52% with 21,511 votes.

Caitlyn Shelton

Republican presidential candidates faced their first test of 2024 in Iowa on Monday. What happens from here? NewsNation political editor Chris Stirewalt says the outcome of the Iowa caucuses might get weird.

Stirewalt thinks voter turnout and the potential for Democratic voters to cross over could shake things up. He made his analysis before the Iowa race was called by Decision Desk HQ.

Author and journalist Bill O’Reilly said there was “never any doubt” in his mind that MAGA voters would turn out for Donald Trump in Iowa. He believes Ron DeSantis is “through” and thinks Nikki Haley is going to “get waxed” in South Carolina.

Ron DeSantis’ campaign has criticized news outlets’ decisions to project Donald Trump the winner of the Iowa caucus, equating it to “election interference.”

“Absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote,” spokesman Andrew Romeo said on X. “The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet.”

As of 9:05 p.m. ET, Ron DeSantis held a three-vote lead over Nikki Haley for second place without about 1% of the vote reported. The final result will be important for providing a boost heading into the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary.

See results here.

NewsNation/DDHQ calls the Iowa Republican caucuses for former President Donald Trump, who appears to have won by wide margins. The race for second place is neck and neck between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

Results are starting to come in, and the first batch has Trump in the lead. He’s garnered 75% of the vote across five counties that have reported. See the results here.