(NewsNation) — Millions of Americans could see their Social Security benefits cut within a decade if Congress doesn’t take action, but it’s a topic President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mostly avoided on the campaign trail so far.
That’s because Social Security is an issue fraught with political liabilities: It’s complex, it will require compromise, and any misstep risks turning away older voters who turn out at higher rates than others.
“When you have a big problem that is out in the future, that you say requires discomfort now, it is very hard to get voters to sign on,” said NewsNation political editor Chris Stirewalt.
Despite each candidate’s reluctance, polling suggests Social Security is a rare example of bipartisan agreement. Nearly 80% of Americans say Social Security benefits should not be reduced in any way, including 77% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats, according to Pew Research.
Among voters over 50, 80% in a recent AARP poll said Social Security will be an “extremely” or “very important” issue in determining their vote in the upcoming election.
“If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters over age 50, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers,” Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer, said in a statement.
Here’s what Biden and Trump have said about retirement benefits recently.
What has Trump said about Social Security?
The former president has been hard to pin down on specific Social Security reforms but has vowed to protect the program.
Last year, Trump urged Republicans in Congress not to cut “a single penny” from Medicare or Social Security, a position he has repeated on the campaign trail.
However, in a March interview with CNBC, Trump answered a question about Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid by saying, “There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements, tremendous bad management of entitlements. There’s tremendous amounts of things and numbers of things you can do.”
Trump later clarified his comments to Breitbart, saying he would “never do anything that will jeopardize or hurt Social Security or Medicare.”
He added, “We’ll have to do it elsewhere. But we’re not going to do anything to hurt them.”
As for concrete policy proposals, the former president has been short on details. In a December town hall, Trump suggested he would fix Social Security by tapping into the “incredible wealth under our feet” in the form of oil and gas.
However, an analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) found that allocating all oil and gas leasing revenues to Social Security would cover less than 4% of the projected shortfall.
Meanwhile, Trump has suggested he’s against raising the retirement age for Social Security.
It’s worth noting that the Republican Study Committee (RSC), which comprises nearly 80% of all House Republicans, recently proposed raising the age for those who are not near retirement “to account for increases in life expectancy.”
The last major Social Security overhaul came roughly 40 years ago when Congress raised the retirement age from 65 to 67. When that happened in 1983, Social Security insolvency was just months away.
What has Biden said about Social Security?
Biden opposes cuts to Social Security benefits and supports efforts to expand Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for seniors and people with disabilities.
“If anyone here tries to cut Social Security or Medicare or raise the retirement age, I will stop them,” he said in his recent State of the Union address.
Instead, Biden wants to fix the system by making sure “the highest-income Americans” pay their “fair share.” In practice, that could mean raising more revenue from payroll taxes, which are the primary source of income for Social Security.
For 2024, the payroll tax that funds Social Security is capped at $168,600, meaning any earnings beyond that aren’t subject to the tax. Under a proposal put forward by House Democrats, the Social Security payroll tax would also apply to income over $400,000.
A 2022 poll of registered voters suggests the plan would have broad support, with 79% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats in favor.
Opponents of the idea argue that increasing the taxable maximum could weaken the link between the amount individuals pay in Social Security taxes and the amount they receive in retirement benefits if benefits are not adjusted upward to reflect the higher contributions, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation noted in an article.