(NewsNation) — It’s been a year since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and polling suggests Americans’ views on abortion have shifted among some groups but remain unchanged for others.
Since the SCOTUS ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, 14 states have banned most abortions. Now, more residents in those states think it should be easier to get an abortion, according to a recent Pew Research survey. The percentage who said so jumped from 31% in 2019 to 43% in April.
But the same poll found 80% of Americans’ views on abortion haven’t changed over the past year. Most people, about 60%, think abortion should be legal in all or most cases — roughly identical to the proportion who thought so in March 2022.
Other data suggest specific groups, young women, in particular, have shifted since Dobbs.
“A lot of people, especially women, and women in childbearing age, really started to reassess how they felt about abortion,” explained Ryan Burge, a political scientist at Eastern Illinois University.
Here’s how attitudes have changed and what that could mean for the 2024 election.
Young women shift in favor of abortion
The percentage of women who said abortion should be legal in all cases increased from 22% in June 2021 to 39% immediately after the Dobbs ruling, according to an AP-NORC survey.
Surveys suggest the SCOTUS decision was particularly galvanizing for young women, who had already grown more supportive of abortion in recent years.
Among Generation Z women — ages 18 to 26 — nearly three-quarters now favor abortion for any reason, Burge found. In 2016, about 65% of that group said the same.
That shift has occurred across the political spectrum.
“You even see it amongst young Republican women, they’ve actually become more pro-choice since Dobbs,” Burge said.
In 2020, about 35% of Republican women between the ages of 18 and 26 supported legal abortion for any reason. Now, nearly half do.
A separate post-Dobbs poll from the Survey Center on American Life found a similar divide across generations.
About half of young women (18-29) said abortion should be legal under any circumstances, compared to 38% of middle-aged women (30-49) who thought the same.
More people are dissatisfied with ‘abortion policy’
While personal attitudes on abortion may not have changed for most Americans, their views on the state of abortion policy have worsened.
From January 2022 to January 2023, the percentage of people who were dissatisfied with the nation’s abortion policy and wanted less strict laws jumped from 30% to 46%, per Gallup.
That shift was mostly driven by increased dissatisfaction among Democrats but both independents and Republicans also reported being less satisfied with the nation’s abortion laws after Dobbs.
Even religious Americans — who traditionally favor tighter abortion restrictions — became more dissatisfied after the Supreme Court decision.
The percentage of Catholics who wanted less strict abortion laws jumped from 22% in January 2022 to 38% in 2023. This year, almost 40% of Protestant Christians wanted less strict abortion laws — a 12-point increase from the year prior, according to Gallup.
Abortion may be a more salient issue going into 2024
Before the Dobbs decision, voters frequently ranked abortion as less important than other issues like the government, economy and immigration. Since then, abortion has become a more salient issue, particularly for Democrats.
Last July, respondents on the political left ranked “abortion issues” as the second most important problem facing the country, according to a Gallup survey.
Some polls show that momentum has continued into 2023.
When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the 2024 election, registered voters ranked abortion second behind the economy in a Wall Street Journal survey in April.
That could present a challenge for Republican presidential candidates, many of whom have been reluctant to discuss abortion policy on the campaign trail.
“Abortion was a symbolic issue of a whole cadre of culture war issues,” explained Burge. “Now, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty of policy, (Republicans) don’t like it at all because they have to make concrete statements.”
Polling suggests a six-week abortion ban of the sort Gov. Ron DeSantis signed in Florida would be broadly unpopular with the general public. DeSantis has not said whether he would push for federal restrictions.
Overall, Democrats have become much more supportive of abortion in recent years, while Republicans’ views have remained fairly stable over time.
Those on the political right are generally opposed to abortion for any reason, but support exceptions like saving the life of the mother or if the pregnancy is a result of rape or incest.
The majority of Americans want some abortion restrictions, but most are strongly opposed to outright bans.