(NewsNation) — With less than two months before the Iowa caucuses, polls show former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of the GOP field. But a string of recent endorsements could shake up the race.
After initially promising to remain neutral, Iowa’s popular GOP Governor Kim Reynolds endorsed DeSantis earlier this month, calling him “the most effective leader I’ve ever seen.”
Last week, DeSantis got even more help with an endorsement from Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa evangelical leader. Vander Plaats has backed the eventual winner in every GOP caucus since 2008.
Both announcements send a strong message to caucus-goers about which way various voting blocs are leaning, especially given the unique primary format in Iowa, said NewsNation political editor Chris Stirewalt.
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“To have a leader of the religious right and a mainstream popular Republican governor both endorse you — that sends a lot of signals to others that ‘this is where we’re going,'” Stirewalt said.
Research has shown political endorsements can impact primary outcomes, although it depends on the type of candidate and voter. A 2013 study found endorsements that come from political parties matter most for candidates in their party’s mainstream and for voters who identify with that party.
DeSantis has also been endorsed by 41 Iowa state legislators, including top-ranking State Senate President Amy Sinclair and State House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl, according to the Des Moines Register.
Whether that support is enough to boost the Florida governor, who’s nearly 30 points behind Trump, remains to be seen. In fact, a recent Iowa State University/Civiqs poll shows the governor’s endorsement may have done more harm than good.
According to the poll, nearly a quarter of caucus-goers (22%) were less likely to support DeSantis based on Reynolds’ endorsement. Just 13% said it made them more likely to support him, and 63% said it made no difference.
Although endorsements may not directly influence most voters, they can be useful in other ways, particularly when it comes to shaping the narrative around a campaign.
“News coverage is often driven by debates and polls and general perceptions about the direction you’re moving, and an endorsement is hugely valuable in that way,” Stirewalt said. “It can disrupt a bad narrative, or it can reinforce a good one.”
That’s one of the reasons you won’t find many candidates turning down the support.
Trump has picked up several Iowa endorsements of his own, including the state’s attorney general, Brenna Bird, and more than 20 state legislators.
Meanwhile, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is closing in on DeSantis, with at least one recent poll showing the two tied in Iowa. Last week, Haley unveiled dozens of endorsements that include Iowa state representatives and prominent local business leaders.
Iowa Treasurer Roby Smith is backing biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s currently polling fourth in the state.
In New Hampshire — the second GOP contest of 2024 — several candidates are vying for Governor Chris Sununu’s endorsement. The popular four-term Republican governor is deciding between DeSantis, Haley and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, per Fox News.
That support could be particularly important for Haley, who has seen her stock rise in the state, recent polls show.
“She could really use some endorsements right now, particularly in New Hampshire, to create a feeling of momentum because voters want to back a winner. They don’t want to waste their vote,” Stirewalt said.
Ramaswamy and Trump have both taken swipes at Sununu, with the former questioning the value of his support.
The 38-year-old political outsider recently called Sununu the “face of the establishment” and told reporters an endorsement from him would be the “kiss of death to whichever candidate gets it,” NBC News reported.
As of Nov. 21, Trump leads the pack in Iowa with a polling average of 47%, according to FiveThirtyEight. He’s followed by DeSantis at 18% and Haley at 15%.
Trump is also ahead in New Hampshire with a 45% polling average, followed by Haley at 19% and Christie at 12%.