(NewsNation) — As candidates continue making moves to position themselves in the 2024 race for the White House, one thing that could provide a glimpse into the future might be religious affiliation.
According to Gallup polling, Americans’ membership in houses of worship has continued to decline, and the states where those numbers are rising or falling could offer clues to the success for each political party.
When it comes to politics and religion, Republicans tend to fare better with religious voters, while non-religious voters tend to side more with Democrats.
Earlier this year, the Wall Street Journal conducted a poll with non-partisan research organization NORC and found 39% of respondents felt religion is important when it comes to American values. That’s compared to 62% of Americans who felt that way back in 1998.
The 2020 U.S. religion census also gives some possible clues. As Politico first reported, it shows the Rust Belt is less religious than it was 10 years ago. That could be a leg up for Democrats, since states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania continue to be critical for their success.
In the meantime, states like Florida and Texas saw a growth in religious adherence. In Texas in particular, increasing numbers of religious and socially conservative Hispanic immigrants along the border could bring better news for Republicans.
Arizona, another crucial state as Republicans hope to win back the White House, has also gained religious followers in some of its biggest counties.
All of these findings show a glimpse of the changing political landscape and could provide some clues for the strategy for both major parties.
Looking past 2024, Pew Research predicts the number of Americans identifying as Christian could fall below 50% over the next few decades. Currently, 64% of Americans identify as Christian. The most recent religious census also showed the number of independent, non-denominational Christian churches growing from 2010 to 2020.