(NewsNation) — After four people ended up in intensive care following severe turbulence on an Air Europa flight this week, nervous flyers may be reconsidering their next trip. But there are tools to help see the expected risk of turbulence and calm your nerves before a flight.
Although severe injuries from turbulence are rare, recent incidents have made headlines after severe injuries or death were reported. Experts say bumpy flights are also going to get worse thanks to climate change.
Tools designed to forecast turbulence, like Turbli or Fly With Courage, let passengers get an idea of what lies ahead as they get on a plane to help ease anxiety.
What causes turbulence?
There are numerous reasons a flight may go from smooth to bumpy. Irregular terrain, like mountains, can cause unstable air and lead to turbulence. So can thermal currents caused by uneven temperatures.
Storms can also cause turbulence, and not just for planes flying through the bad weather. The effects of a storm front can extend for long distances, affecting planes in what appear to be clear skies.
Turbulence is divided into four categories, ranked from light to extreme. Light turbulence is the kind many air travelers have experienced, with slight bumpiness that may make you jolt in your seat but isn’t enough to cause objects to go flying. On the other end of the scale, extreme turbulence can cause pilots to lose control of the aircraft and in addition to being strong enough to cause unsecured objects (and people) to be tossed around, can also cause structural damage to a plane.
How dangerous is turbulence?
While mild turbulence is fairly common, extreme turbulence, the kind that can cause injuries like those on the Air Europa flight or the kind that affected a recent Singapore Airlines flight, leaving one person dead, is much less common.
Between 2009 and 2021, the Federal Aviation Administration reported 30 serious passenger injuries and 116 serious crew injuries due to turbulence. Considering that around 4 billion people fly every year, the odds of being seriously injured are low.
Airlines aren’t required to report minor injuries, so that number is harder to track.
Can I tell if my flight will run into turbulence?
Knowing that turbulence doesn’t usually cause injuries isn’t necessarily reassuring for people who are already nervous about flying. But now, apps have emerged to help people know what to expect before they board.
Sites like Turbi and Fly With Courage forecast turbulence based on a number of factors, including weather patterns, predicted global turbulence, planned flight paths and the type of aircraft.
However, like airline forecasts, they are subject to change. Just because a forecast says clear skies are a head doesn’t mean that can’t change after take-off, as weather patterns can shift and flights may change their flight paths for any number of reasons.
Why is turbulence getting worse?
If it seems like you’re hearing about rare turbulence more, that’s not entirely wrong. Climate change is causing more extreme weather, which can lead to turbulence, as well as increasing a phenomenon known as clear air turbulence. Unlike weather patterns that can be detected by satellite, clear air turbulence is only detected by on-board sensors or reports from other aircraft flying on the same path.
To combat increasing turbulence, the National Transportation Safety Board has recommended streamlining the ways airlines report and share information about turbulence and increasing safety rules like keeping seatbelts fastened.
Scientists are also looking for more novel solutions. One of those? Birds. Researchers have suggested tagging birds with sensors to gather data as they move through the air.