(NewsNation) — More high school graduates are choosing to forgo college and take their chances in the job market, according to new Labor Department data released last week.
The college enrollment rate for recent U.S. high school graduates fell to 61.4% in 2023, the lowest level in at least three decades. That’s down roughly five points from before the pandemic in 2019 (66.2%).
Meanwhile, recent high school grads who skipped college have become more active in the labor market. The share of that group, ages 16 to 24, working or looking for work has risen from 66.9% in 2021 to 71.7% in 2023.
It’s a shift that’s been fueled, in part, by a historically low unemployment rate for teenage workers as well as an uptick in wages across several sectors that don’t require a college degree.
But last year’s strong labor market is just one part of the college enrollment story. Surveys suggest more Americans are questioning the value of a bachelor’s degree and want more noncollege alternatives.
A recent Wall Street Journal/NORC poll found that 56% of adults think a four-year college degree is “not worth the cost.” Americans’ confidence in higher education has also fallen sharply in Gallup surveys.
Lately, delays with the federal government’s revamped financial aid form, FAFSA, have left millions of students in limbo — adding more stress this year.
Schools use FAFSA information to determine financial aid packages, but efforts by the Education Department to address bugs in the system have held up the process by several months.
Nationally, the number of completed FAFSA forms is down 36% compared to a year ago, according to the National College Attainment Network.
Affordability is Americans’ biggest concern when it comes to higher education, and now, more students are returning to community colleges, which saw enrollment rise 2.6% from 2022 to 2023, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
“I think it reflects the notion that students are more interested in shorter-term and lower-cost programs,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director at the National Student Clearinghouse.
Here’s what people are doing after high school and how that has changed since the pandemic.
High school grad enrollment in college dropping
2019: 66.2% of recent high school grads enrolled in college
2023: 61.4% of recent high school grads enrolled in college
Of the 3.1 million people ages 16 to 24 who graduated from high school last year, 1.9 million were enrolled in college in the fall (61.4%), according to the Labor Department. The college enrollment rate for recent grads peaked in 2009 at 70.1% during the Great Recession.
Trends worth paying attention to:
- More noncollege goers are working: Among recent high school graduates who were not enrolled in college, roughly 72% were working or looking for work in Oct. 2023, up 5 points from 2021, according to BLS data. Low unemployment and rising wages, which have outpaced inflation over the past year, are likely contributors.
- Share of men going straight to college rises: After plummeting during the pandemic, the percentage of male high school grads going right to college (57.6%) is up from 2021 (54.9%), government data shows. However, that share is still about five points lower than in 2019 and almost eight points lower than the women’s rate. A decadelong drop in male enrollment has some warning about a larger crisis facing men.
Note: The Labor Department’s college enrollment rate includes those who attend two-year and four-year colleges, but other education, like trade school, is only included if the credits count towards “regular school.”
How has community college enrollment changed?
Fall 2019: 5.22 million students enrolled (National Student Clearinghouse)
Fall 2023: 4.57 million students enrolled (National Student Clearinghouse)
Change in enrollment since Fall 2022: +2.6%
Community colleges were hit especially hard during the pandemic, with total enrollment down 15% from 2019 to 2021, according to National Student Clearinghouse data.
As of last fall, the number of students in community college still trails behind pre-pandemic levels but has rebounded slightly, up three percentage points, over the past two years.
There is an outlier: Vocational-focused community colleges saw enrollment surge 16% last year to its highest level since the National Student Clearinghouse began tracking the data in 2018.
“A lot of that growth at the community colleges is not just students looking for associate’s degrees, but even more so students looking for short-term certificates and vocational programs,” Shapiro said.
Vocational programs, which specialize in providing students with job-related courses, could be especially important in the coming years, with the nation facing a skilled labor shortage as longtime tradesmen age out of the workforce.
Trends worth paying attention to
- Skilled trades boom: The number of community college students studying construction trades is up over 25% since 2018. Meanwhile, the share of those in mechanic and repair technician programs rose more than 11% from 2022 to 2023.
- Older students drive freshmen uptick: The recent rise in freshmen (+2.3%) at community colleges has been fueled by those who are a few years removed from high school. Freshmen enrollment among those aged 21 to 24 jumped nearly 14% from 2022 to 2023 and increased almost 13% among those 25 or older. By comparison, the share of community college freshmen who were 20 or younger was unchanged from 2022 to 2023.
Apprenticeship participation surges
Fiscal Year 2019: 205,588 active apprentices aged 24 and under
Fiscal Year 2024: 265,274 active apprentices aged 24 and under
Apprenticeships allow workers to earn while they learn and have become more common in recent years. Among those aged 24 and under, the number of active apprentices in registered programs is up almost 30% since 2019, according to the Labor Department.
Depending on the program, apprenticeships can range from several months to several years and are typically sponsored by unions, trade associations, or individual businesses.
Recent surveys suggest there’s considerable interest among young people, with 75% of 18-to-20-year-olds in a 2023 Jobber report saying they’re interested in educational opportunities that offer paid, on-the-job training.
Trends worth paying attention to
- A rise in white-collar opportunities: Apprenticeships have historically been more common in blue-collar trades like construction, but they have expanded to office roles in recent years. Today, roughly 40% of apprenticeship programs are outside of construction trades, the Wall Street Journal reported. Programs like the Chicago Apprentice Network offer opportunities across several fields including corporate IT, cybersecurity and finance.