(NewsNation) — An above-average Atlantic hurricane season is expected for 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday, with the forecast for named storms the highest the agency has predicted in a seasonal outlook.
“This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways,” NOAA Administration Rick Spinrad said at a news conference Thursday at the National Press Club in Washington.
El Niño and La Niña, two climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect the weather around the world, play a “significant” role in this year’s abnormal hurricane season, Spinrad said.
El Niño is expected to end by June, leading to a period of neutrality where neither climate pattern is present — but this won’t last long, with La Niña soon developing.
In years where La Niña occurs, there have historically been more — as well as stronger — hurricanes in the Atlantic, but fewer in the Pacific. Last week, NOAA predicted a below-average Pacific hurricane system, with one to four tropical cyclones expected across the region, compared to the four to five in a more typical season.
An official Climate Prediction Center forecast issued this month indicates that La Niña has a 77% chance of forming in the August to October timeframe, when hurricane season hits its peak and above-average sea surface temperatures are predicted.
“We know the development of La Nina can lead to weaker easterly trade winds and below-average vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Ocean,” Spinrad told reporters. “This type of environment can be more conducive for tropical cyclone development.”
Hurricane expectations for 2024
NOAA forecasts there will be 17 to 25 total named storms with recorded winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these storms, eight to 13 are anticipated to become hurricanes. Four to seven could be considered Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph.
“Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook,” Spinrad said.
Projections for the collective strength and duration of the Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes this season range from 150% to 245% above normal. To measure this, NOAA uses the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. The ACE projections for 2024 are the second highest to start a season, Spinrad said.
Officials urge hurricane preparedness
During the news conference, experts from NOAA and the National Weather Service said people need to have a plan in place, especially if they have circumstances that could make evacuating harder, such as using mobility devices or other medical needs.
When it comes to the storms themselves, Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said people should “run from the water and hide from the wind.” Graham said 90% of storm fatalities from 2013 to 2023 were from water, mostly incidents in freshwater. Of the deaths in freshwater, about half are in automobiles. Storm surge can also be a danger, Graham said, as well as rip currents.
“Don’t be out there in the water in these systems,” Graham stressed. “Let’s not do that, because we’re losing people every year.”
Along with the lives lost, “communities can be devastated” from the financial costs of tropical storms, Spinrad said. Tropical storms from the Atlantic cost about $4 billion in damages for the contiguous United States, despite the fact that most Atlantic tropical activity remained offshore, Spinrad said. When the impacts of Hurricane Hilary are added to that, the number rises to almost $5 billion in damages.
Still, forecasters are now “better equipped than ever” to deal with the upcoming severe weather, Spinrad said, thanks in part to funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act.
“President Biden’s ‘Investing in America’ agenda has actually allowed us to enable rapid deployment of things like advanced water models, allowed us to build near real-time high-resolution flood inundation maps across the country, and we’ve all been on our path toward next-generation radar,” Spinrad said. “These investments are critical.”