WASHINGTON (NewsNation Now) — President Joe Biden said Friday he is convinced Russian President Vladimir Putin has made up his mind to move forward with an invasion of Ukraine.
While it’s impossible to read the Russian president’s mind, experts NewsNation spoke with said whether he is bluffing or intends to launch a full-scale invasion, Putin would essentially be making the same moves right now.
“Putin has basically outfoxed and outsmarted an awful lot of people over the 22 years he’s been there by trying to basically use his experience as an operative for the Russian intelligence services, and Biden’s well aware of that,” said Fiona Hill, a former National Security Council senior director for Europe and Russia.
She believes it is Putin who manipulates people, and not the other way around.
“We have to be very well aware of that,” she said. “Putin was trying to manipulate people.”
However, some observers believe an invasion is likely not in the Russian president’s long-term interest. But in the short term, it may provide him with negotiating leverage.
Case in point: excluding Ukraine from being considered for NATO membership.
“He’s certainly a leader that has a particular view of Western countries and of NATO, that is a very negative one and that’s a sentiment that resonates very well with the Russian public,” said University of Colorado Boulder professor Dr. Sarah Wilson Sokhey. “He’s a smart person. I think that very much makes it possible to pursue a diplomatic negotiation.”
She believes Putin is likely happy with the fact he has demonstrated Russia can destabilize Ukraine — as well as bring Western powers to the negotiating table.
She said Putin may see an invasion of Ukraine as having both economic and security benefits for Russia.
“So further invading Ukraine is really about asserting power, that’s what they gain,” said Sokhey.