Russia-Ukraine war: How successful are cease-fire deals?
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(NewsNation) — Russia announced a ceasefire Monday but continued to pummel Ukrainian cities with rockets and was met with withering criticism after evacuation routes to allow civilians to flee Ukraine were mostly leading to Russia and its ally Belarus
In the latest cease-fire proposal, most of the evacuation routes were toward Russia or Belarus, a move Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk called “unacceptable.” Belarus served as a launching ground for the invasion. The third round of peace talks between the Kremlin and Ukraine was set for Monday.
But how successful are cease-fire deals? According to Notre Dame researchers, 80% of all ceasefires fail.
But an indicator a deal will be successful is if the parties involved have tried to negotiate a ceasefire before.
The more times both sides are willing to come to the table, the less risky the ceasefires seem and the more stakes are raised by each side to uphold their side so they get to keep their concessions.
About a third of all ongoing conflicts observe at least one ceasefire but it can take years for permanent peace to hold.
A factory and a store are burning after been bombarded in Irpin, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti) 
A Ukrainian woman dressed in military attire prays inside the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church in Lviv, western Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue) 
A Christian worshiper prays in front of pictures of fallen soldiers at the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church in Lviv, western Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. The memorial is dedicated to Ukrainian soldiers who died after 2014. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue) 
A soldier holds a helmet as a wedding crown during the wedding ceremony for members of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces Lesia Ivashchenko and Valerii Fylymonov, at a checkpoint in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) 
A man opens his arms as he stands near a house destroyed in the Russian artillery shelling, in the village of Horenka close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. On Day 11 of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Russian troops shelled encircled cities, and it appeared that a second attempt to evacuate civilians from the besieged port city of Mariupol had failed due to continued violence. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) 
A boy and his cat hide from the Russian artillery shelling in a school basement in the village of Horenka close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. On Day 11 of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Russian troops shelled encircled cities, and it appeared that a second attempt to evacuate civilians from the besieged port city of Mariupol had failed due to continued violence.(AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) 
People hide from the Russian artillery shelling in a school basement in the village of Horenka close to Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. On Day 11 of Russia’s war on Ukraine, Russian troops shelled encircled cities, and it appeared that a second attempt to evacuate civilians from the besieged port city of Mariupol had failed due to continued violence. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) 
People cross an improvised path under a destroyed bridge while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. In Irpin, near Kyiv, a sea of people on foot and even in wheelbarrows trudged over the remains of a destroyed bridge to cross a river and leave the city. (AP Photo/Oleksandr Ratushniak) 
A woman carried by Ukrainian soldiers crosses an improvised path while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. In Irpin, near Kyiv, a sea of people on foot and even in wheelbarrows trudged over the remains of a destroyed bridge to cross a river and leave the city. (AP Photo/Oleksandr Ratushniak) 
Refugees wait in a crowd for transportation after fleeing from the Ukraine and arriving at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland, Monday, March 7, 2022. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians attempting to flee to safety Sunday were forced to shelter from Russian shelling that pummeled cities in Ukraine’s center, north and south. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber) 
Refugees, mostly women and children, wait in a crowd for transportation after fleeing from the Ukraine and arriving at the border crossing in Medyka, Poland, Monday, March 7, 2022. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians attempting to flee to safety Sunday were forced to shelter from Russian shelling that pummeled cities in Ukraine’s center, north and south. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber) 
A small child, who is part of a family who fled from Ukraine and has been taken in by a local family, shows a drawing she made in Chisinau, Moldova, Monday, March 7, 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off the largest mass migration in Europe in decades, with more than 1.5 million people having crossed from Ukraine into neighboring countries. (AP Photo/Aurel Obreja) 
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Lithuania President Gitanas Nauseda meet at the Preseident’s Office in Vilnius, Lithuania, Monday March 7, 2022. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has begun a lightning visit to the three Baltic states that are increasingly on edge as they watch Russia press ahead with its invasion of Ukraine. (Olivie Douliery/Pool via AP) 
Police help an elderly woman, who fled from Ukraine, after she arrived on the platform of the train station in Zahony, Hungary, Monday, March 7, 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off the largest mass migration in Europe in decades, with more than 1.5 million people having crossed from Ukraine into neighboring countries. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic) 
People, who have fled from Ukraine, wait to board a train traveling to Budapest at the train station in Zahony, Hungary, Monday, March 7, 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off the largest mass migration in Europe in decades, with more than 1.5 million people having crossed from Ukraine into neighboring countries. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic) 
Two people hold on to their pets, after fleeing from Ukraine, as they run for a train to Budapest at the station in Zahony, Hungary, Monday, March 7, 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set off the largest mass migration in Europe in decades, with more than 1.5 million people having crossed from Ukraine into neighboring countries. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic) 
Refugees who fled the Russian invasion from neighbouring Ukraine sit inside a ballroom converted into a makeshift refugee shelter at a 4-star hotel & spa, in Suceava, Romania, Friday, March 4, 2022. At 4-star hotel & spa some 50 km from the border with Ukraine, wedding parties and conferences have been canceled and the ballroom converted into a makeshift refugee shelter where those who have escaped the Russian invasion come to rest and warm up before continuing their journey. (AP Photo/Andreea Alexandru) 
The dead bodies of people killed by Russian shelling lay covered in the street in the town of Irpin, Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. With the Kremlin’s rhetoric growing fiercer and a reprieve from fighting dissolving, Russian troops continued to shell encircled cities and the number of Ukrainians forced from their country grew to over 1.4 million. (AP Photo/Diego Herrera Carcedo) 
A Ukrainian woman dressed in military attire prays inside the Saints Peter and Paul Garrison Church in Lviv, western Ukraine, Sunday, March 6, 2022. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
It took 91 ceasefires to get peace in Yugoslavia, with 35% of them lasting less than a week. There have been more than 140 ceasefire attempts in Syria.
Researchers say that peace is only possible if both sides consistently view more value in keeping ceasefire deals alive than violating them.
It was not immediately clear if any evacuations were taking place amid Russia declaring a cease-fire.
The Russian invasion has pushed 1.7 million people to flee the country, creating what the head of the U.N. refugee agency called “the fastest-growing refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.”
Many others are trapped in cities under fire. Food, water, medicine and almost all other supplies were in desperately short supply in Mariupol, which an estimated 200,000 people were trying to flee. Russia and Ukraine have traded blame for the failure of a cease-fire there over the weekend.
Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said Moscow’s attacks could be halted “only if Kyiv ceases hostilities.” As he has often done, he blamed Ukraine for the war, telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday that Kyiv needed to stop all hostilities and fulfill “the well-known demands of Russia.”
Since the invasion began, Russia has been isolated with sanctions, riddled with ruble plunges and the country’s extensive trade ties with the West have been all but severed.
