CHICAGO (NewsNation) — Russia has achieved limited territorial gains and suffered irreparable losses since invading Ukraine one month ago. But even if Vladimir Putin made a deal and chose to cease fire today, two military insiders say this conflict would be far from over.
“If people imagine we’re going to get a cease-fire and a negotiated settlement, then think we can turn and start focusing on some other issue — that’s the wrong way to look at this,” former CIA operative Mike Baker said on Thursday night’s edition of “The Donlon Report”.
Retired Green Beret Scott Man, who is also a retired Army lieutenant colonel and Afghanistan war expert, agreed, telling the program there’s actually a history lesson at play here.
“There’s nothing quite like an organized resistance when you’re an occupying force,” Mann said. “Russia should have learned this in Afghanistan.”
Mann is speaking of the Soviet-Afghan war that began in 1979, when the Soviet Union intervened in support of the Afghan communist government in its conflict with anti-communist Muslim fighters.
They remained in Afghanistan until 1989, losing about 15,000 troops.
“They [Russia] are an occupying force and there is a nationally mobilized resistance that is just going to bleed them dry,” Mann said. “This is just the beginning. It may be a long game but this is what it looks like.”
Russia’s losses in Ukraine already exceed Soviet losses in Afghanistan, as NATO estimates up to 40,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded, captured or missing in action in Ukraine.
There’s also been reports that Russian troops are now turning on each other and that Putin is ordering execution squads to kill his own men if they try to desert.
Additionally, as Russia stalls in Ukraine, reports say dissent has been brewing among Putin’s leadership. According to the New York Times, the toll of war has been setting off questions about his military’s planning capability and the quality of the intelligence that reaches him.
“The information advantage is definitely Ukraine right now in the way that everything is playing out,” Mann said.
And Bakers agrees.
“Just what we’re seeing with our own eyes tell us — whether it’s communication, whether it’s logistics — the Russian military and their command structure has gotten things wrong,” Baker said.
Baker says what happens next depends on what Putin is willing to accept. Ukraine formally ceding some areas of Ukraine, such as Crimea, to Russia and a written pledge not to join an alliance are two potential elements of a truce. But a signed treaty won’t end the consequences of war.
“Even if he backs off now, he’s got to get everything out of the country,” Baker said. “This is a long term problem that we’re dealing with.”
