(NewsNation) — Discipline rates in middle school rise rapidly at the beginning of the year then fluctuate in predictable ways, according to a new study.

Researchers found daily discipline rates went up early in the school year but fell in the lead-up to holiday breaks before increasing again right after those breaks.

The study’s authors think the new information can help educators better understand when and where to intervene in order to prevent escalating tension.

“If principals or teachers know by Halloween in any given year these students are facing this very heightened risk of being kicked out of school, or in which schools these students face the highest risk, we can get in there and do something about it,” Jason Okonofua, assistant professor of psychology at UC Berkeley and co-author of the study, said in a statement.

Knowing when to intervene could be particularly important for Black students, whose discipline rate grew significantly faster than white students during periods of escalation.

Over the four school years studied, by November, the Black student discipline rate was 10 times higher than at the beginning of the year and 50 times higher than the white student rate, the study found.

In fact, researchers could predict year-long suspension rates in just the first 21 days of school.

Typically, academics have relied on end-of-year discipline rates to identify trends but the new research presents a “dynamic” view which could help educators and administrators make more informed, real-time decisions.

“It is incredibly important, useful and valuable to know we should do a specific type of intervention at a specific point in the year based on the real-time data,” said Okonofua.

The data comes from the disciplinary experiences of almost 47,000 students across 61 middle schools in one of the nation’s largest school districts.

Okonofua’s previous research has shown interventions like empathy training can lead to better disciplinary outcomes.