NewsNation’s Chief Washington Anchor Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He provides expert analysis and insight into the Israel-Hamas war in the Oct. 17 edition of War Notes. You can view Vittert’s latest war notes here.
(NewsNation) — Tonight, President Joe Biden leaves for Israel; this note will stay away from the domestic political considerations of his trip and focus on the Middle Eastern aspect.
Biden’s announcement could be seen as forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand and making him wait another few days, in which case, points for political shrewdness for the Biden administration.
The longer the Israelis wait, the more pressure grows regarding “civilians in Gaza.” The only thing the pro-Palestine/anti-Israel crowd will be happy with is giving Hamas whatever they want. Lots of people want to tell Israel what not to do, but nobody will tell them how to or help them deal with Hamas on their border.
Ground truth: The suffering in Gaza continues to get worse and Hamas, and Hamas alone, could change that. They won’t. The Arab world could help. They refuse. Egypt could single-handedly open the border and create refugee camps, but they say no. Why does the world hold Israel solely responsible for Gaza, a place they withdrew from nearly 20 years ago?
The more the United States “stands by Israel,” the harder it is to justify a ground invasion, especially if rocket fire from Gaza diminishes.
Four years in the Middle East taught me to not believe in coincidences.
Is it really a surprise that Hamas announces it will release foreign hostages “when conditions on the ground allow,” only to have Biden announce a visit a few hours later? This is setting up for Biden to demand or broker some type of ceasefire in the name of giving hostage negotiations a chance. Nobody with real, regional experiences gives this a chance, but Hamas clearly knows where they can play the United States off Israel.
We predicted the turn in public opinion against Israel and demands for proportionality and restraint that only apply to Israel. Nobody has called for Ukrainian restraint. Watch carefully for what is happening here, especially during Biden’s visit.
Also remember that Netanyahu and Biden hate each other, seriously hate each other. Netanyahu embarrassed Biden while he was vice president and he hasn’t forgotten it.
A friend of mine who is smarter than I am said: “Not clear why he feels the need to go. Best case — Israel exercises caution with Gaza civilians, which is already likely. Downside case — Bibi embarrasses Biden once he’s wheels up. Worst case — our enemies take a crack at him or launch an assault of some sort on Israel while he’s on the ground.”
The delay in the massive ground invasion is starting to become the story. The reasons for it are more important than the tactical military delay. The Jerusalem Post has a great piece about this.
The IDF had a plan to invade Gaza on the shelf. Now they are having to massively rework it for two reasons:
- They clearly underestimated Hamas’s technology, training and abilities. They are asking themselves, “What else don’t we know?” and “What other weapon systems do they have?”
- The objectives have clearly changed from diminishing and wounding Hamas to destroying them.
Iran can’t seem to get their talking points straight. On Sunday, they said they wouldn’t attack Israel. How much of this would be happening if Biden had been tougher with Iran from the start?
The argument of getting aid to “Palestinian civilians” is a straw man. Hamas controls the Gaza strip and is intercepting all aid and putting it toward their war effort. It is impossible to get aid to Gaza civilians. Remember the Hamas bigwigs sit in luxury villas provided by Qatar; the rest of the Arab world cries about the plight of the Palestinians all while doing precisely nothing to help them. They have no safe zones, have not pressured Hamas, have done no work at the United Nations. The Wall Street Journal just put out a piece saying what we have been saying for a long time: Hamas, and Hamas alone, is responsible for the suffering in Gaza.
From a United States foreign policy perspective, the whiplash is stunning, and the irony of Biden’s distasteful withdrawal from Afghanistan only to now refocus on the Middle East (and send two carrier battle groups) is pretty wild.
It might have been easier just to stay in the first place and maintain American deterrence. In the end, it took less than 20 months for weapons left behind in Afghanistan to (likely) make their way to Hamas, who we are now providing weapons for Israel to fight against.
This is a sign of our times: “Israel makes the hormones I need, but I support Palestinian liberation.”
And just this morning the Jordanians announced no Gazan refuges will be allowed in Jordan.
It is noteworthy that Jordan is majority “Palestinian.” They take up a majority of the original British Mandate, but are fully controlled by a Hashemite King. I am not an expert on these matters but that is the common definition of an apartheid state.
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not of NewsNation.
