NewsNation’s Chief Washington Anchor Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He provides expert analysis and insight into the Israel-Hamas war in the Oct. 20 edition of War Notes.
The news in one line: While President Joe Biden spoke, Iran attacked. Deterrence has not returned.
If you watch one thing over the weekend, watch this: a Columbia University professor has an open letter to parents. It will give you hope.
A week ago we predicted that American pressure will change Israel’s plan for their ground invasion.
As we laid out, Israel’s army faces a challenge unlike any before when they go over the berm. The Wall Street Journal calls it an “urban hellscape.” From underground tunnels to Hamas drones above, any ground war will be awful.
It is still unclear exactly what the Israelis are waiting for, but they have been using their urban training center day and night.
The hostage situation still remains very fluid. It still appears that Israelis are more interested in taking on Hamas directly than any types of negotiations.
Elbridge Colby led off “On Balance” last night with a stark warning about a larger foreign policy crisis in the world, not just in the Middle East. Mike Allen’s morning note for Axios echoed that, saying the United States government is “rattled.”
Americans aren’t used to feeling “rattled;” many will now focus on foreign policy in a way they haven’t before. Watch and see if Biden remains confident in his national security team that got us here or perhaps switches to some more hawkish Democrats.
In the hours after the Hamas attack, Netanyahu reportedly told Biden that Netanyahu needed to restore deterrence to Israel’s enemies. The same can be said of American enemies.
Iran’s Iraq-based militias attacked a U.S. base within minutes of Biden’s speech. Four years in the Middle East taught me to not believe in coincidences. Iran’s overall intention is unclear. We know they want regional power but it is unclear how getting into a full-blown war with the United States would help that. That said, embarrassing the United States goes a long way to realigning the power structure in the Middle East. Nobody was happier about the Egypt and Jordan snub than Tehran. Their plan is working.
Iran’s “Ring of Steel” plan around Israel is working as well. In addition to loyal forces in Yemen that fired on Israel and a U.S. Navy ship yesterday, Iran literally rings Israel and American bases in the Middle East. The State Department told Americans to leave Lebanon because of threats from Hezbollah: 50,000 fights and 150,000 precision-guided missiles. In Iraq, Iran backed militias send suicide drones toward two U.S. bases. Hamas and Islamic Jihad control the Gaza strip. And, of course, the Syrian’s chemical weapons are available to Iran whenever they want because Syria is a client state and their president, Bashar al-Assad, will do what he’s told.
It appears Iran is still waiting to unleash Hezbollah. It is unclear if they are waiting for a Gaza ground invasion or just keeping the insurance policy.
Politico’s Playbook headlined this morning: “Biden tries to make it a foreign policy election.” Does that mean the Biden re-election campaign team has given up on Bidenomics? Do they believe Americans feel safer and secure now than they did in 2019?
As well, Americans aren’t used to a global travel warning.
Former president Jimmy Carter lost reelection because Americans felt things were spinning out of control. Did last night’s speech set the course for America to regain control?
As we have noted, the coupling of aid to Israel and Ukraine is politically brilliant politically. It divides Republicans who are Israel supporters and the MAGA base that is increasingly upset over funding to Ukraine. It also focuses the media attention on Republican dysfunction. There is an observation to be made that Republican caucus politics in the House closely resembles the dysfunction of internal Israeli politics over the past few years. There results there weren’t pretty.
Biden quadrupled down on the moral equivalency last night, saying, “We must, without equivocation, denounce antisemitism. We must also, without equivocation, denounce Islamophobia.” That by definition allows for equivocation. Nobody is saying Islamophobia is okay, but antisemitism is rampant as there are thousands marching in America’s streets calling for the eradication of Israel.
Biden and his supporters point to the killing of Wadea Al-Fayoume as proof of a secret Islamophobia threat. But this is different. There isn’t an America or Jewish-American who would tell you his killing was good, justified or anything other than morally repugnant. Rabbis attended his funeral. But there are thousands of Muslims celebrating the slaughter of Jews. It is simply not the same, as much as Biden would like to provide an excuse for the far left of his party.
Biden also called Al-Fayoume’s father and uncle, but has he spoken to the families of all American hostages and Americans that died in the Hamas attack?
Having lived in the Middle East for years and having covered Gaza extensively, I am fascinated by the sudden interest in Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. It is neither new nor would be solvable with 20,000 truckloads of aid, much less the twenty truckloads Biden brags about. The White House acknowledged they were taking Hamas’s word when pressed by CNN.
There is something to consider regarding how Hamas operates. Hamas and Gaza are short on fuel, food, electricity and medical supplies but not rockets, weapons and drones. This shows you where their priorities lie.
Gazans lived in squalor before Hamas’s attack and they will again after this conflict. Nobody will care. The sudden interest comes only because the world can use it to blame and restrain Israel.
At the same time, the Hamas attack unleashed an incredible amount of antisemitism in America. These folks did not start hating Jews just because Hamas slaughtered a thousand. For example, the professor who called Israelis “pigs” and “very bad people” had those thoughts two weeks ago; she just didn’t feel empowered to express them.
War Notes is taking the weekend off. See you Monday.
Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not of NewsNation.
