(NewsNation) — If you’re hoping for a white Christmas this year, the upper Midwest and Great Plains region are going to be your best bet.

States including Minnesota, Montana and Colorado are historically safe bets but the East Coast and much of the Great Lakes religion aren’t expected to get much in the way of accumulation.

At least one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. local time is the standard definition of a white Christmas, according to The Washington Post.

Minnesota

The Gopher State has several cities known for a predictable white Christmas. Duluth and International Falls are historically prone to a white Christmas, according to Thought Co. Duluth has a 92.2% chance of a white Christmas this year, according to USA Today.

Residents of the Twin Cities aren’t likely to wake up to snow with less than 10% of accumulation, compared with a 74% chance historically, according to The Washington Post.

Colorado

While Aspen and Crested Butte are historically easy bets, Denver is expected to be greater this year than its historical average. The Washington Post reports that there’s a 50% chance of a white Christmas. Denver residents could see several inches of snow on Dec. 25.

East Coast

The typically dependable areas of the East Coast aren’t expected to deliver much in the way of flakes this year.

New York

Utica, New York typically sees around 21 inches of snow every December, according to Thought Co. This year, however, the area expects to see minimal coverage between Dec. 20 and Dec. 26. A couple hundred miles east in Buffalo — an area known for its massive swaths of lake effect snow — is expecting only about a 10% chance compared with a 53% chance historically, according to The Washington Post.

Vermont

As of this writing, Burlington, Vermont appears to have the best chance for Easter Coasters to see a white Christmas. There is a 20 to 30% chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. Historically, that figure is 42%.

Where will snow be a sure thing?

Anchorage could break its Christmas Day 1994 record of 30 inches, according to the National Weather Service.

Is climate change to blame for lack of snow?

The National Weather Service doesn’t foresee a white Christmas for much of the country. But on the bright side, “At least the weather is favorable for most people who have plans to travel this year,” the service wrote in its holiday forecast.

Climate change is playing a role in diminishing Christmas snow, said Judah Cohen, the director of seasonal forecasting at Verisk Atmospheric and Environmental Research. He, however, told the Associated Press it remains a complicated picture, with extreme cold snaps and unusual weather events occurring.

“Certainly, the globe is warming. Winters are getting shorter. Overall, they’re getting warmer,” Cohen said. “December, I’ve seen the strongest warming. So I feel like December really no longer qualifies as a winter month. The early-season skiing is becoming more and more challenging.”