(NewsNation) — In a sudden twist just days before the Iowa caucuses, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the Republican presidential race, reshaping the dynamics of the GOP field.
The move appears to be a boon for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, as polling suggests that a substantial portion of Christie’s supporters view Haley as their second choice.
The latest data has been analyzed by Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ.
Tranter argues Christie’s voters are likely to shift towards Haley in the absence of their first-choice candidate.
“It’s reasonable to assume, not just from that poll, but lots of polls, especially the ones in the Decision Desk HQ, The Hill, polling average show that Christie’s voters, should they not have Christie to vote for, do disperse primarily to Nikki Haley,” Tranter said in an interview on NewsNation’s “On Balance.”
Moreover, Tranter highlights the significance of New Hampshire being an open primary, allowing independent voters to influence the outcome. He suggests Haley’s appeal could extend beyond traditional Republican voters, making the primary more competitive.
Democratic strategist Kurt Bardella weighed in on the potential impact of Haley’s rise, emphasizing her electability against Democratic nominee President Joe Biden. Bardella asserted, “If Nikki Haley were the nominee against Biden, she would win in a landslide, game over, pack it up, go home.”
However, the report acknowledges that Haley’s message may face challenges with Republican primary voters, particularly in South Carolina, her home state where she has been actively campaigning.
Right before Christie was about to take the stage to announce the end of his campaign, he was caught on a hot mic saying Haley was “gonna get smoked.”
He said Haley spent “68 million so far, just on TV. Fifty-nine million by DeSantis. And we spent 12. I mean, who is punching above their weight? And who is getting a return on their investment?”
“You and I both know it. She’s not up to this,” Christie said.
Despite acknowledging her significant financial investment, Tranter noted that, as of now, Haley has gained momentum, and the return on investment is what matters in the long run.
