NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. 

Never before in their lives have journalists and pundits spent — or wasted — more time talking about who will come in second. 

Ground Truth from Des Moines

Nikki Haley’s surge and Ron DeSantis’ plunge intersect at the perfect moment to create drama on caucus day. 

Watch tonight: We will air our interview with Haley at her rally last night in Dallas County.  Dallas County and Polk County will be a key litmus test of her surge among professional class and suburban Republicans. 

• Tune in for an answer to this fun question: Would she pick Trump as her vice president?  

For discussion tomorrow:

• Do voters see her, rather than DeSantis, as the alternative to former President Donald Trump? 
• How many Democrats and independents will same-day register to vote for an alternative to Trump?
  • This is a significant data point for New Hampshire’s open primary next Tuesday where Democrats and independents can turn out to vote for Republicans. 
• She makes the case as a general election candidate rather than a primary candidate.

Watch tonight: Bill O’Reilly (@BillOReilly) will join “On Balance” to discuss the general election. His message of the day compares President Joe Biden with Jimmy Carter in 1980 or “Jimmy and Joe” in his words. If Biden is so bad, why don’t Republicans pick the person most likely to beat him — Haley? 

Battle for the ’Burbs

Axios reports the race for second as a battle for the suburbs. The talented Sophia Cai (@SophiaCai99) and Linh Ta (@linhmaita) report on the push by Haley to turn out suburban and thus more traditional Republicans versus Iowa’s more rural and working-class evangelical Christians that skew toward Trump. 

Thought bubble: Is Haley’s momentum a creation of the media desperate for storylines or an actual threat to Trump?

Roads out of Iowa: 

• If Haley comes in second, it’s difficult to understand DeSantis’ future. 
• If DeSantis wins, his campaign can fundraise off of him being a meaningful alternative to Trump.

Battle for Farm County

Speaking of DeSantis versus Trump, Dubuque and Sioux Counties will tell us if a significant amount of typically rural, working class, older or evangelical voters want what we have dubbed “new Coke” (DeSantis) or “regular Coke” (Trump). 

• Polling indicates DeSantis supporters are dedicated, enthusiastic, limited in numbers and generally overlap with Trump voters in demographics and beliefs. 
• But, Iowa can be surprising.
  • Between the actual DeSantis campaign and his “Never Back Down” super PAC, his ground game meets or exceeds that of Ted Cruz in 2016. Cruz won, but don’t underestimate DeSantis’ ability to surprise.  

Our Weekend (quad box screen grabs of standups at each)

We couldn’t make it to the four corners of Iowa because of the roads but did make it to a rally for each of the candidates:

• Haley at a beautiful barn-type wedding venue about 40 minutes west of Des Moines:
  • The night harkened back to politics of a different era — a polite but enthusiastic crowd on a cold night looking for an inspiring, nongrievance-based outlook on America. 
  • There were 20 versions of my mom volunteering at Nikki Haley’s event. Her supporters appeared to consist mostly of insurance salespeople and accountants.
    • This follows Jonathan Martin’s (@jmart) excellent Politico report on why Haley won’t break through: “Today’s GOP is split along class lines, and her college-grad supporters aren’t the majority.” 
  • She has the  “it factor” but with cookies. 
  • I asked one supporter if Haley was “too nice” for an angry Republican Party. “I don’t think she’s too nice. We’re Iowans. We’re nice anyway,” he responded.

• Trump at a student center at a small university in Indianola 30 minutes south of Des Moines:
  • His voters remain overwhelmingly dedicated — unlike in 2016, rural, mainly working-class evangelicals support him with a fervor normally reserved for Sunday church service.
    • The Washington Post is the latest to explain this in religious terms with the headline, “‘Ordained by God’: Trump’s legal problems galvanize Iowa evangelicals.”
  • He still loves to talk about crowd size but picks some awfully small venues. For example, in Indianola, his rally upstairs at the student center at a small college held a few hundred plus an overflow room. Literally in the same complex, the fieldhouse holds 3,000 plus floor seating, but Trump’s campaign picked the smaller venue instead.
  • “Build the wall” and “Drill, baby, drill” aren’t the biggest applause lines anymore
    • The Associated Press notes, “These caucuses are your personal chance to score the ultimate victory over all of the liars, cheaters, thugs, perverts, frauds, crooks, freaks, creeps and other quite nice people.”
  • Fact check: His supporters love it — love him — and he’s still magnetically entertaining on the stump. 
• DeSantis at his super PAC headquarters in a West Des Moines office building:
  • Their ground game and campaign and super PAC coordination show what 100 million dollars buys you.
    • To be fair: This could lead to their promised surprise. 
  • We interviewed a Florida veteran, Dan Green, who came up to organize for his governor. He said, “I did five deployments through Iraq and Afghanistan. This is a small inconvenience to help our country.”
  • The candidate showed up nearly an hour late to a room equally filled with media, observers and supporters, which is hardly an impressive turnout. 
  • By the time he came out for a standard stump speech, even volunteers appeared almost bored.
    • Applause lines fell flat. 
  • It’s easy to understand DeSantis’ campaign failure to launch after reading two excellent New York Times pieces about him.
    • “What Went Wrong for Ron DeSantis in 2023” 
    • “The Story Ron DeSantis Does Not Tell Is His Own” by Nicholas Nehamas (@NickNehamas). 
• Vivek Ramaswamy at a pizza restaurant in the suburbs of northern Des Moines:
  • The crowd felt like Ramaswamy himself — those angry with the government and the establishment of both parties.
  • He still remains the most accessible and confident candidate, as indicated by him inviting us on his bus for a chat.
  • He promises to have data showing a big upset coming, but he won’t share it.

The Weather

Since we last talked Friday, it has gotten colder in Iowa, though thankfully, there’s no more blowing snow.

The smart folks can’t agree on how the cold weather will affect caucus turnout. Trump’s rural older voters have farther to drive but are reportedly more dedicated. Haley’s suburban voters report less enthusiastic support in the last Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll but don’t have to travel as far. 

• From The Des Moines Register: “Although Nikki Haley has pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis, the Iowa Poll shows clear dangers lurk for her going into a caucus night that could be decided by Iowans’ willingness to brave the bitter cold.”

Hot take Unlike the NFL with its game in Buffalo, New York, Iowans don’t reschedule big events for the weather.

Watch tonight: ”On Balance” will be live from Des Moines at 7 p.m. ET and then our special coverage will continue at 8 p.m. ET. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.