Historian who correctly predicts winning presidents shares formula
- Allan Lichtman: 'A lot has to go wrong for Biden to lose'
- Academic shares '13 keys' to winning White House
- Lichtman: 'Polls are snapshots,' not predictions
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(NewsNation) — A notable forecaster of presidential elections says “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
Allan Lichtman, an esteemed history professor at American University, joined NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo on Wednesday to discuss his predictions for the 2024 election.
He pointed to his method of predicting presidential elections, using 13 “keys” that are premised on the idea that “American elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House Party.” Lightman credits “governance” and “not campaigning” that count.
Lichtman developed the formula in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok. He’s had a history of correctly picking the winner of presidential elections since the mid-’80s.
He’s, so far, correctly predicted nine of the last 10 elections. He predicted Biden would win the 2020 election over Trump, and he said in The Guardian interview that the COVID-19 pandemic “is what did him in.”
Professor Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House
- Party Mandate
- Party Contest
- Incumbency
- 3rd Party
- Short-term Economy
- Long-term Economy
- Policy Change
- Social Unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign Policy
- Incumbent Charisma
- Challenger Charisma
Lichtman said his advice to voters is to remember that “Polls are snapshots.”
“They are abused as predictors, and the pundits have no scientific basis and no track record for their predictions.”
Lichtman said Biden has “lost two keys: party mandate and incumbent charisma.” But he adds that “four more keys would have to fall” in order for Biden to lose.
