NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

Big picture today — it’s still four months until the election. 

• Inflation numbers came in way down (the best numbers since May 2020) 
• CNN is already attacking those who attack Vice President Kamala Harris
• Easy play: Replace Biden with Harris.
  • Media will refocus on attacking Trump 
  • Media will go giddy over the first female president
  • Harris will pick a moderate Democratic governor (Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Josh Shapiro) for vice president
  • There will be big pressure on the Federal Reserve for an interest rate cut before the election. A wage increase will begin to ease the pain of inflation  
  • And you won’t hear about the border anymore 
• I’m not saying it will happen, but it lines up. 

Now, back to reality…

State of Play — Buckle up Tighter! 

Betting markets now have Kamala Harris as the favorite for the Democratic nomination 

• CNBC’s Brian Sullivan reacts, saying, “You think the Bidens are just going to go quietly?”
• Thought bubble: Much of the coming discussion should be who is around the president – who is telling him the truth, if anybody — so writes our friend Mick Mulvaney in The Hill.

Leaks in the Biden dam continue to get bigger.

• The Congressional Black Caucus is far less vocal in its support
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., gave far less than full-throated support for Biden 
• Team Biden met with Senate Democrats pleading for them to stay with him — it appears they will through the press conference, but after that, who knows
• The “Biden has a decision to make” camp is growing 
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., issued a VERY weak nondenial denial to reports he is open to replacing Biden. 
• MSNBC anchors Chris Hayes and Jen Psaki now openly flirt with a non-Biden Democratic ticket 
• The New York Times reports Biden’s campaign has done internal polling about Harris on top of the ticket 
• It appears (as we told you last night) former President Barack Obama knew about and did not oppose George Clooney’s New York Times op-ed.
  • Watch Joe Scarborough melt down over Obama’s backstabbing. 
  • Trump didn’t like Clooney’s op-ed either.
    • Thought bubble: Obama somehow united Trump and Scarborough … who had that on their July bingo card?

The unknown: Obama remains silent (at least publicly) 

• That is the biggest question. 

The best thing going for Biden is that he is the president and (effectively) the nominee — forcing him out will be a bloody endeavor that may not succeed. The more attacks Biden endures (in a weird way), the stronger he gets. 

So Yes, Biden Has a Chance

President Biden walks out for his first solo press conference in more than six months to a humiliated and dogged press corps — that’s a problem for a man who has issues answering basic questions. 

Home-field advantage: Biden is speaking from the NATO summit in D.C. rather than the White House, meaning foreign reporters will be in attendance. When he needs a way out or a break, he can call on a reporter from Le Monde and get a softball about Ukraine or the French elections. 

What to look for: 

• The White House moved the press conference to 6:30 E.T., around prime time evening news, as if forcing America to watch the performance rather than analysis of it. It’s also right about when most of Congress leaves D.C. for the day.
  • Will he call on Peter Doocy of Fox?
  • What about Phil Weggman of RealClearPolitics? 
  • How long will the presser go? 
  • Does the White House block the print photographers from catching his “cheat cards”? 
  • How aggressive are reporters in their pushback? 
  • How aggressive are the White House press staff holding the microphones at blocking follow-ups? 

Zoom out: The White House press corps must make up for believing (and repeating) the spin from Biden that he privately did underwater trigonometry while saving the country, and we just saw him in bad moments. 

• They are humiliated and now looking for blood to regain credibility and prove they weren’t or aren’t in the tank for Team Blue.
• Fact check: Most were in the tank for Team Blue, but this must-read Washington Post op-ed by Megan McArdle makes a good case for liberal bias among the White House press corps that isn’t a conspiracy.
• Look forward: If Biden drops out, they will turn Harris into the first living saint. We’ll have more on that tomorrow. 

The biggest problem for Biden is that even an excellent performance doesn’t end the conversation — but yes, he has a chance.

• Biden is playing for time — namely next week. 
• In a Biden campaign memo obtained by NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer, the campaign writes, “The surest way to help Donald Trump is to spend his convention talking about our nominating process instead of the MAGA extremism that will be on stage in Milwaukee.” 
  • It’s the only sentence in the nearly 1,900-word document that is bold and underlined.

Weird world: Team Trump wants to keep Biden in the race — for obvious reasons. 

• “Trump is planning for a landslide win,” writes Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) in an Atlantic must-read. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.