President Biden is trailing former President Trump in Virginia, according to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released Thursday, but the gap is within the data’s margin of error.

The survey found that 45 percent of Virginia voters said they support Trump, while 43 percent back Biden and 11 percent said they were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president is now essentially tied with Trump,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”

The poll found that when third-party candidates are factored in, Trump leads Biden 43 percent to 38 percent. 

But the same survey found Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.) leading his GOP challenger, Hung Cao, by 10 points — 49 percent to 39 percent. That is reflective of a broader trend across battleground states in which Democratic Senate incumbents have performed better than Biden.

Other recent surveys also show Biden facing a close race in the Old Dominion. A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 47 percent to 42 percent. 

Meanwhile, a Virginia Commonwealth University poll released Monday showed Trump leading Biden by 3 points in the state, and a New York Times-Siena College poll released the same day showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points. 

Republicans say they are feeling increasingly optimistic in their chances in Virginia, which has not gone Republican at the presidential level since 2004. Trump notably picked the Hampton Roads area, one of the swingiest regions in the state, as the site of his postdebate rally last month, where he appeared with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).

The GOP has pointed to Youngkin’s 2021 win as a potential blueprint for Trump in the state. But Virginia Democrats have had significant electoral successes in the 2022 midterms and the 2023 state Legislature elections.

The same Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey showed Youngkin with a 46 percent approval rating and a 38 percent disapproval rating. Biden holds a 37 percent approval rating and a 53 percent disapproval rating. 

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was held July 13-15 among 1,000 Virginia registered voters.