(NewsNation) — Vice President Kamala Harris is in good shape to take the White House in 2024, according to the historian who devised the “Keys to the White House” formula.
Allan Lichtman, a historian and American University professor, has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984 using a formula of 13 true-or-false questions.
On “NewsNation Live” Thursday, he discussed how recent “cataclysmic events” have had a mixed but important impact on the keys assessing the White House party’s strength and performance. If six keys go against the White House party, it predicts a loss, he explained.
“(Democrats) have united around Kamala Harris, preserving the ‘no primary contest’ key. So the bottom line is they only lost one key, plus it looks like Harris may have a positive effect for the Democrats on two other keys,” Lichtman said.
He noted that despite the loss of one key, the outcome still looks positive for Democrats, and significant issues would have to occur for them to lose in November. Currently, they’re down three keys, which include “incumbency mandate” due to U.S. House losses and “incumbent charisma because Harris is not an FDR.”
“Three more keys would have to fall to predict their defeat. The keys I haven’t called are ‘third party,’ which is looking better for the Democrats. ‘Social unrest,’ which is looking better for the Democrats, and ‘foreign military failure and success’ — which are the two shakiest keys. Of those four, three would have to fall to predict the Democrats’ defeat possible but not likely.”
Litchman plans to make his prediction for this year’s election after the Democratic National Convention, set for Aug. 19-22 in Chicago.
Allan Lichtman’s keys to the White House:
- Party mandate
- Party contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military policy failure
- Foreign/military policy success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
