Rep. Cori Bush’s primary on Tuesday is once again putting progressives on guard as they face what could be their second consecutive defeat this cycle.

Bush is squaring off against Wesley Bell, the prosecuting attorney from St. Louis County, in a Missouri race that will test the “squad’s” strength and staying power.

Many progressives see Bush as the potential underdog, especially after Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-N.Y.) loss revealed problems for liberal incumbents.

“I am having flashbacks to my races in 2021 and 2022,” said former Ohio state Sen. Nina Turner, who twice tried to win blue-district primaries as an insurgent. It’s “going to be a nail-biter to the end.”

“There are a lot of undecided out there,” Turner said. “If they swing her way, she could win this race. But it should’ve never come to this.” 

The Tuesday primary, whose winner will be the clear favorite to represent the state’s Democratic-leaning 1st Congressional District, has turned contentious amid a bitter divide within the party. Now, progressives fear what happened to Bowman in New York is happening all over again with Bush.

Bell, a centrist who allies insist is a progressive prosecutor, has criticized Bush as being so far-left that she’s out of place in the party. He has argued she has a bad record in the House and has highlighted the number of times she’s missed votes on Capitol Hill. He’s pointed to times when she’s diverged from President Biden, arguing she was misaligned with the caucus. 

“Progressives should be about making progress,” said Anjan Mukherjee, a Democratic strategist working to elect Bell. “Cori Bush knows she can’t defend her record in Congress, which is why she has given excuses.”

Bush has long drawn the ire of moderates over her stances on criminal justice and policing, as well as her push for student loan relief — including a critical vote against Biden’s signature trillion-dollar bipartisan infrastructure deal.

Bush, Mukherjee said, “has spent her time in Congress obstructing President Biden’s progressive agenda and finding herself caught up in multiple scandals.”

Her support for the Palestinians after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel has further fueled opposition to her from within the Democratic Party. The activist-minded congresswoman’s embrace of Palestinian rights included loud calls for a cease-fire and attacks on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to whom she referred as a war criminal as recently as last week when he addressed Congress. 

As her criticism intensified, special interest spending thrived. The greatest cash influences working against Bush are the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and the United Democracy Project, its affiliated political super PAC, as well as other Democratic interest groups. AIPAC had a major role in Bowman’s defeat in late June, creating a blueprint for future spending campaigns to damage leftists like Bush. 

AIPAC considers Bell a champion for Israel. He has earned UDP’s financial support totaling over $8 million, Federal Election Commission records show. According to the tracker AdImpact, a massive $15 million has poured into the race. While that’s less than the $25 million spent in Bowman’s contest, it still ranks among the country’s top five most costly in history, the tracker shows.   

Progressives who helped recruit Bush are furious over the dollar amount pouring into the district.

“You don’t spend almost $10 million in a single Democratic primary from a position of strength or if your policies, politics or politicians were popular,” said Usamah Andrabi, who serves as communications director for Justice Democrats.

“This level of spending is a testament to the strength of our progressive movement and the power everyday people have to transform our political system,” Andrabi said. 

Bush’s first congressional race, where she scrambled to win against Rep. Lacy Clay, foreshadowed the spot she’s in now, fighting against tough headwinds. Bush’s campaign is distinct from Bowman’s, but the two “squad” members share the burden of beating inordinate outside spending. And while Bush won that 2020 race against Clay, the financing has risen exponentially this cycle.

“That one individual former nurse and single mother fighting for working people in her district is such a threat to right-wing interests, corporate power, and Republican megadonors in Congress that they have to drag our democracy through the mud to even have a shot at challenging Cori Bush,” Andrabi added.

Other progressives weren’t as convinced about her prospects in the difficult climate.

“The classic left flank antidote of out-organizing big money is not enough,” said Angelo Greco, a progressive strategist and Bush supporter. “It has to be more combative and also deploy funds at scale.”

Progressives rebuke claims that Bush hasn’t been a strong ally during the Biden administration. In the most recent showing of support, she joined with progressives in abstaining from pushing for Biden to step down, despite mounting pressure from vulnerable moderates in swing districts to do the opposite. When Biden did decide to make that announcement last month, Bush was among the first House liberals to endorse Vice President Harris.

Some Bush advocates want Harris, who has enjoyed a super-charged launch and eye-popping cash influx in just a few weeks, to return the favor. Having the backing from the presumptive Democratic nominee could recalibrate the race in Bush’s favor, the congresswoman’s supporters argue. 

“Imagine how amazing it would be if Harris came out to endorse her,” Greco said. “If I were on Team Bush, I would try to seek that out and or make it a thing. Put pressure and use the Black woman network.”

When pressed if that’s likely to happen, Greco appeared less optimistic. “I doubt it,” he said.

Turner remembers first-hand the difference an endorsement from Pennsylvania Avenue can make. In her Cleveland bid, Biden made the unusual move to endorse her opponent, Rep. Shontel Brown, who won handily. 

“I mean, it would’ve been really magnanimous, for example to have the vice president come in to help Congress but that’s not happening,” Turner added. She predicted that it “will hurt the Black community in the long run.”

The first Black woman to represent her district after defeating Clay, Bush’s bid represented a stark shift for voters who bought into her promise to improve conditions for working class people. Bush’s victory came when progressives were enjoying an anything-is-possible approach to electoral politics against longtime Democratic representatives.

Now, she’s at a money disadvantage and facing a wave of anger over what her opponents deem as far left, anti-Biden and anti-Israel. They hope it will be a powerful trifecta against Bush. 

Bell, who is also Black, has the support of The National Black Empowerment Action Fund, which has spent roughly $1 million on ads and mailers to negatively influence Bush’s standing with Black voters. A public relations firm called Mercury working with the group on polling and research shared a memo with The Hill that found Bush has a key weakness in some of the language she’s used to discuss policies. 

An analysis of the memo states that Bush’s positions “present major challenges for her public image.” It homes in on her slogan-heavy messaging as problematic, noting that 84 percent of Black Democrats “prefer a Congress Member who is focused on governing and getting results as opposed to one who is focused on activism and ideological rhetoric.”

Bush has used slogans common among grassroots networks like “defund the police,” but that have since fallen out of fashion with most Democrats. “Even among demographic sub-groups with whom Bush is strongest, cracks emerge when her Black constituents are fully aware of her record,” it reads. “Moreover, Bell’s public safety and criminal justice reform record resonates highly with Black Democrats.”

One Democratic strategist, who works with Black female organizers and candidates and asked to remain anonymous, suggested that voters are paying particular attention to who is actually telling the story about what’s happening in the district.  

“This election is about the messenger,” said the strategist. “The strongest Democratic messengers right now are those who can, in the same breath, criticize an opponent and point to results.” 

“Bush is vulnerable partly due to an absence in her rhetoric and in her campaign message frame about what she has done for the district. That leaves her vulnerable to insurgency,” the strategist added.

“Progressives who might be good at criticizing opponents and the opposition, but terrible at outlining their achievements in tangible ways, [are] going to have a hard time in 2024.”