NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 71 days to the election 
• 15 days to the debate set for Sept. 10
• 36 days since Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the candidacy, and she still hasn’t had a meaningful interaction with the press. 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Harris +3.7, as of around 12 p.m. ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 56 to 48 in favor of Harris

Mark Your Calendars

Despite what you are reading, the Sept. 10 Trump and Harris debate will happen, and the political conversation over the next 15 days will largely revolve around the debate.

Including THE RULES:

• Team Trump claims Harris wants to change the rules.
  • Microphones were left open (instead of being shut off) during the Biden-Trump CNN debate. Remember the demonstration and Team Biden’s insistence on closed mics when the other candidate was talking — ha!
  • Seated vs. standing — as originally agreed
  • Notes vs. no notes — as originally agreed 

Look back: Team Harris roasted Trump over asking for more debates on different networks. Her campaign came out with a statement earlier in August saying, “The debate about debates is over.”

Be smart: Wanting hot mics tips Team Harris’ hand to their strategy of trying to provoke Trump into interrupting and then having Harris give her classic “I’m speaking” smackdown. 

Trump speaks: “We agreed to the same rules. I don’t know, doesn’t matter to me. … The agreement was that it would be the same as it was last time. In that case, it was muted,” Trump said when asked today. 

Harris silent: Who knows what Harris thinks — she won’t talk to the press. 

• Fair questions:
  • What is Harris’ team afraid of?
  • Should networks stop taking rallies until she speaks to them or at least put up banners saying, “Harris addresses supporters after 36 days dodging interviews”?
  • Why do Trump and his surrogates keep talking to the media — should they just do appearances talking about all the questions Harris is dodging? 

Bad history: Both Trump and Harris have BOMBED in past debates … including in the clip provided by Collin Rugg.

• Trump’s performance in the first 2020 debate against Biden might have cost him the election. 

The stakes couldn’t be higher — mark your calendars.

Democracy vs. Abortion

A clip circulating of right-wing provocateurs/journalists (whatever you want to call them) lays bare what might be the fundamental question for young white single women this election — do you care more about abortion or democracy? 

• Watch the clip here. 

Last Person in the Room … Three Years Later

Harris proudly said she was “the last person in the room” when President Joe Biden made the disastrous decision to pull out of Afghanistan in the worst possible way.

• Click here to watch her talk about it. When asked if she was comfortable, she said, “Yes.” 
• Read Politico’s story on it here.

Yet, three years later …

• There are no celebrations to mark this huge administration success
• Democrats won’t attend a memorial for the 13 killed by a suicide bomber at Abbey Gate
• To Harris, this signature event of Biden-Harris foreign policy did not happen

Welcome to 2024: Harris plans to run as though Donald Trump, not her, is the incumbent …

• It’s a brilliant strategy but deeply, deeply cynical and allowed by a media that (rightly) holds Trump to account on every issue — only to carry Harris’ water.
  • Watch this clip of ABC’s Jon Karl playing Harris campaign spokesperson 

Biden-Harris’ Afghanistan withdrawal gave way to: 

• The war in Ukraine
• Rise of Iran and the Oct. 7 attacks against Israel
• A new level of bad behavior from China

Watch tonight: Steve Nikoui, who lost his son at Abbey Gate, will talk about the response from the Biden-Harris administration vs. the Trump administration. 

Another anniversary: Trump’s mugshot one year ago 

• The case may not even go to trial because of prosecutorial misconduct 
• Even Democrats in Georgia say the case is fundamentally flawed 

What the Polls Show

We give you the Decision Desk HQ national polling average at the top of War Notes every day. But what does it mean?  Not much unless you know how to read it.

• The PredictIt betting odds give Harris a slight edge.
• Polymarket gives Trump a slight edge. 

The Atlantic does a wonderful deep dive into why pollsters continually screw up when measuring support for Trump. As they point out, despite big efforts to fix underrepresenting Trump support in 2016, it got worse in 2020. 

• Gilad Edelman writes, “Even though polls in 2020 included more white non-college-educated voters, they turned out to be disproportionately the white non-college-educated voters who preferred Biden. The new consensus is that Republican voters are less likely to respond to polls in the first place, even controlling for education level.”

Watch tonight: Famed Clinton pollster and adviser Mark Penn will join us. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.