(NewsNation) — NASA has set a date for Boeing’s Starliner capsule to return to Earth, though the craft will be coming home without a crew. Meanwhile, SpaceX, which is set to give the two astronauts a lift home in February 2025, has been grounded by federal regulators after a mishap with one of the company’s Falcon 9 rockets.

The agency plans to bring Starliner back in an autonomous return on Sep. 6, ahead of a planned Sep. 24 launch for SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission later in the month. Starliner has to be undocked before Crew-9 can head to the International Space Station due to a shortage of docking stations for crewed missions on the U.S. side of the facility.

The decision to return Starliner home empty is the latest blow for Boeing on a project that has been marked by delays and overspending. If SpaceX is grounded for a significant period of time, that could also impact plans to bring astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams home.

Difficulties with commercial partnerships could also cast a shadow over NASA’s private partnerships for upcoming projects, including the Artemis project that intends to return astronauts to the moon and the decommissioning of the ISS, which is set to be replaced by a privately operated space station.

Starliner’s struggles continue

Starliner was already years behind schedule when the first crewed test mission launched after multiple scrubbed attempts.

NASA had already detected a helium leak when the capsule launched, but the agency, along with Boeing, decided to monitor the small leak instead of repairing it. As the mission continued, more helium leaks in the capsule’s service modules were located, and the crew experienced thruster issues when docking with the ISS.

The scheduled eight-day mission quickly went over the planned time as NASA and Boeing tried to troubleshoot Starliner’s issues from Earth. One reason so much time was spent on testing is because the service module, where the major issues are located, will burn up on reentry, leaving no opportunity to examine the physical structure to see what went wrong.

NASA ultimately decided to bring the astronauts back on a SpaceX capsule, reducing the planned Crew-9 mission to two astronauts instead of four, leaving room for Wilmore and Williams to hitch a ride back to the planet. But the decision didn’t go over well with all, with the New York Post reporting Boeing executives fought against the decision, accusing NASA of being overly cautious.

Starliner’s main issue is with the thruster system, which is essentially the steering wheel of the capsule. The thrusters are most crucial at two moments, docking with the ISS and returning to Earth. If Starliner were to be unable to correctly angle itself on reentry into the atmosphere, the consequences could range from bad to catastrophic.

If Starliner were to hit the atmosphere at too shallow an angle, it could fail to enter and bounce back into orbit, with roughly 96 hours of oxygen remaining on board. A slightly too shallow angle could mean the capsule ends up in an entirely different location than it is meant to be and not necessarily an ideal one for landing.

In the worst-case scenario, Starliner could enter the atmosphere at too steep of an angle resulting in increased deceleration forces and/or a higher heat flux. That could result in the capsule breaking apart due to force or burning up as heat shields fail.

On top of the thruster problem, there are also fears Starliner’s parachute system is not configured correctly. If the parachutes don’t deploy precisely as needed, the capsule would hit with too much force and potentially be destroyed, with deadly consequences to those inside.

If Starliner does return safely and land as planned in White Sands, New Mexico, Boeing could argue NASA was being too conservative in its risk assessment and argue the capsule should still be certified for crewed flight. However, it’s not clear if NASA will certify the capsule even if things go well, a setback for Boeing as it also faces serious questions about the culture of safety at the organization.

SpaceX grounded

The plan to return Williams and Wilmore on the Crew-9 mission set to launch in September and return in February of 2025 could also be jeopardized by the Federal Aviation Administration’s decision to ground SpaceX flights.

The move came after one of the company’s Falcon 9 rockets exploded on landing, resulting in the FAA ordering the company to have accident findings and its corrective action plan approved by the agency before more missions can go forward.

The rocket blasted off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and got all 21 Starlink internet satellites to orbit. But the first-stage booster fell over in a fireball moments after landing on an ocean platform, the first such accident in years. It was the 23rd time this particular booster had launched, a recycling record for SpaceX.

In addition to the September launch of Crew-9, SpaceX was also planning a privately chartered mission, Polaris Dawn, which had already been delayed once due to weather. It’s not clear exactly how these missions could be impacted yet, as SpaceX works to figure out the cause of the Falcon 9 failure.

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program

If Boeing’s Starliner fails to be certified and SpaceX remains grounded, it will leave NASA without a way to carry astronauts to and from the ISS without Russian assistance in the form of the country’s Soyuz craft.

The companies are both part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, designed to speed innovation and reduce government costs by partnering with private industry to build and carry out space missions.

In 2020, the Government Accountability Office issued a report warning the program was behind on meeting goals and noted that NASA had failed to develop a backup plan should SpaceX and Boeing fail to deliver on their promises, something it suggested NASA do in 2018.

SpaceX has already completed several missions, raising the chances it will be able to resume flights following an accident review and approval by the FAA. If Starliner isn’t certified, it will be up to Boeing to decide if it wants to continue with a project already more than a billion dollars over budget.

Boeing would also be on a time crunch, with the ISS set to be decommissioned and replaced by a privately owned and operated space station in 2030. If it bows out, NASA would have to rely exclusively on SpaceX, removing the redundancy that was designed to be part of the program.

If Boeing pulls back on spaceflight, other missions could face delays. The company is also contracted to build key components for the Artemis program, which has already faced failures from private companies as NASA tries to return humans to the moon. The agency also recently cited Boeing for problems at a Louisiana manufacturing facility responsible for the components.

While there have been notable failures from private, NASA isn’t immune to failure either, with disasters like the Apollo 1 fire and the Challenger explosion a reminder that space travel is dangerous whether it’s done by private industry or NASA.

The latest struggles, though, prove that private partnerships also come with risks and potential delays in NASA’s ambitious goals as the tension between industry innovation and NASA’s risk-averse approach to safety may conflict when it comes to expanding into deeper space exploration.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.