NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 49 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3.7, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 58 to 47 in favor of Harris.

Yes, Donald Trump Can Win

Former President Donald Trump is doing better than people are telling you.

• Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics delivers a must-read chart.
  • Click here to see Trump far outpacing his 2016 and 2020 polling numbers in swing states.
• Will he win? Who knows, but he can and very well might. 

As Bill O’Reilly told us last night, the “can” might be up to Trump.  

• “It’s ridiculous,” O’Reilly said about Trump saying he “hated” Taylor Swift on social media. 

Watch tonight: Trump holds a town hall at 7 p.m. ET moderated by Arkansas governor and former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders — it will be his first public event since the second attempted assassination. 

• What he should be talking about:
  • Food pantries in Wisconsin report bare shelves long before the holidays
    • Thought bubble: Kamala Harris says she will fix high prices with a price-gouging law — a law Wisconsin already has a state version of. 
    • Maybe someone should tell the Democrat governor of Wisconsin. 
  • Or the other Springfield, Ohios — like Charleroi, Pennsylvania, which “struggles under the surge of Haitian migrants.”
    • Funny how nobody cares about it since they can’t make Trump look bad.
    • As we told you, there are a thousand towns with the same story.

Bonus coverage: Scott Tranter joins us with the numbers tonight and whether pollsters fixed the 2016 and 2020 problems of undercounting Trump support. 

Trump, the Incumbent

While Trump is busy insulting Taylor Swift, Democrats continue to successfully paint him as the incumbent …

• Do yourself a favor and watch Gwen Walz on the stump.
  • The cringe factor aside, turning the page on Trump appeals to a lot of people, even Republicans who want to be done with Trump. 
  • Fair question: What page are we turning … from Biden and Harris to just Harris? 

They literally won’t tell you. Ed O’Keefe with CBS posted a video of Gov. Tim Walz ignoring his traveling press pool. 

• President Biden now speaks to the press far more than Vice President Harris or Gov. Walz … pretty remarkable.

Below the Belt! 

Israel blew up 2,800 Hezbollah terrorists by selling the Iranian-backed group pagers with explosives hidden inside.

• Look back: Israel killed Hezbollah’s No. 2 by allegedly hacking his cellphone and then sending a missile through his apartment window.
  • Soooo, the group wanted a more secure, untraceable way to communicate with its foot soldiers and got everybody pagers. 
  • Click here and here to watch the videos from when the pagers exploded countrywide. 
  • And click here for the best view
    • Just think of where you carried your pager back in the day … front pocket — there you go. 

Zoom out: While the White House obsesses over a cease-fire in Gaza, Israel is quietly turning the Middle East power dynamic upside down and replacing America as the dominant force. 

Fairness Check

Today, Harris sat down for an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists — let’s just say it went a little differently than when Donald Trump sat down for an interview with the organization. 

• Watch tonight : Former CNN anchor and journalism professor Frank Sesno on the fairness doctrine.

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.