NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 43 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3.6, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 57 to 45 in favor of Harris.

43 Days

Time is not treating Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign well …

Assassination attempt 2.0: A letter from Donald Trump’s would-be assassin in Florida admits to the crime and tries to encourage others to finish the job. 

• The bothsidesing of political violence isn’t working well for Democrats — they made it an issue after Jan. 6, and it is blowing up in their face. 

Trump’s polling is improving, with The New York Times showing him winning Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — it’s not the presidency, but it shows he’s stopped (if not reversed) Harris’ momentum. 

• “Have we reached peak Harris?” writes Chris Cillizza. 

Bill O’Reilly reports Trump is finally listening to him and everyone else by mellowing his message.

• Thought bubble: I have seen this play before.
  • How does O’Reilly explain Trump promising to blame Jews if he loses?
  • How does O’Reilly explain Trump saying women don’t have to worry about abortion if he wins?
    • Does this sound like a mellow Trump? 

Later this week, Harris promises a big economic speech — if it’s like her last one where she unveiled price controls, buckle up  

• Watch tonight: Trish Regan will discuss both Trump and Harris’ economic plans, which are equally dumb and unworkable — yet no one will tell you that because almost all media are just cheerleaders for their own side.
  • Bonus thought: Trump’s litany of free and promises of a 10% cap on credit card interest hurts him.
    • Because:
      • One, it sounds like Elizabeth Warren.
      • Two, it makes the “Comrade Kamala” hit ring hollow.

Foreign policy isn’t moving in her direction. Biden speaks tomorrow at the United Nations, more on that below, but in a dangerous world, is there anybody who thinks Harris will be better than the disaster after disaster brought by Team Biden?

What about the Dreamers? Harris faces growing questions about her flip-flops, like this Axios piece on giving the “Dreamers” a pathway to citizenship.

• Look back: Dreamers are adults now who were brought to the United States illegally as minors, making them the poster child for pro-amnesty folks. 
• Where does Harris stand now? … Who knows.
  • More videos of past unpopular stances keep coming out, like this 2018 clip where she says, “Down, down with deportation.” 
• Trump has said since 2015 criminals are coming across the southern border. Both The New York Times and New York Post have big stories about the Venezuelan gangs making themselves at home in the United States. 

The gaffes: Harris and Governor Tim Walz having near-perfect teleprompter and message discipline means they make news in all the wrong ways when they go off. 

• Walz said over the weekend, “We can’t afford four more years of this,” and conservatives agreed!  
• Harris’ comment about shooting anyone who comes into her home continues to beg more questions …
  • But she’s too busy to do interviews, explains one staff member.  
  • And even CNN is complaining about the lack of access.

Stephanie Ruhle explains on MSNBC the logic for the lack of aggressive Harris coverage 

• Watch this — she actually tells the truth. 

Biden goes to the U.N.

President Biden addresses the United Nations General Assembly tomorrow against the worst foreign policy backdrop since 1945 …

• The New York Times takes us around a frightening world. 

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board headlines, “How Freedom Has Faded on Biden’s Watch” in their print edition today.  

• Biden’s whole Middle East policy focused on deeseclation, which both Israel and Iran fully ignored — now, he says he’s worried about escalation. 
• Fair question: So for the past year, your foreign policy has centered on deescalation. And now you are worried about escalation. Does that mean your foreign policy hasn’t worked?
• Better question: Where in the world is America in a stronger, safer position than when you took office?
  • Middle East: No
  • Russia: No
  • China: No
  • Overall military strength, readiness and lethality vs. our peers: No 
  • NATO: On paper, it is stronger because it has to be after Putin invaded Ukraine

Which country in the world is going to be more scared of a President Harris than they are of Biden?

Adults in D.C.: One year ago, Jake Sullivan was getting ready for his famous Middle East assessment.

• He told the world, ‘The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
• One week later (Oct. 7), Hamas attacked Israel. 

Watch tonight: George Will will discuss the foreign policy legacy of the Biden administration that either Harris or Trump will inherit. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.