NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 35 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +4.5, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 55 to 48 in favor of Harris.

Editor’s note: Much like the candidates for tonight’s debate are ripping up their answers and the moderators their questions, we ripped up most of the show this afternoon — so here are some quick thoughts. 

Watch tonight: Coverage of the debate starts at 7 p.m. ET and stay tuned for the postgame with me and Chris Cuomo. 

• State of play: Democrats are furiously lowering expectations for Walz.
  • Read the leaks here in Politico.
  • Watch tomorrow for headlines about Walz being folksy as an excuse for not answering questions and Vance being a bully or weird.
    • Sad truth: The storylines are already written.
  • NO fact checking: CBS announced the moderators won’t fact check. That sounds like an implicit acknowledgment that the ABC debate was grossly unfair to Donald Trump. 

Literally as the clock struck midnight to begin October, we had three surprises unfolding:

1. Iran launched ballistic missiles on Israel. This could either be the beginning or the end of regional war in the Middle East and focuses attention on foreign policy.
   • After this, can Israel or the United States allow even the possibility of an Iran nuclear weapon?
   • Advantage: Trump
2. The port workers’ strike started. Remember the “supply chain crisis” a few years ago that added rocket fuel to inflation? The strike will make the supply chain crisis look like child’s play.
   • These are the same working class and union voters leaving Democrats in droves.
     • Watch CNN reporting on union households: “Sometimes there are data points that just jump off the screen, should set off sirens.”
   • Any price hikes will first be felt by the very voters who decide the election.
   • Democrats can’t be seen as pressuring the union – a tersely-worded Teamster letter told the Biden administration to stay “the f***” out of it.”
   • Advantage: Trump 
3. The growing crisis in North Carolina and Georgia
   • Hundreds are still missing and countless are dead. 
   • Power won’t come back on for a month.
   • Many have lost everything. 
   • We still don’t know or understand the extent of the devastation or how it will affect voting.
     • Without houses, post offices or town halls, voting is hard. 
   • Advantage: Harris (probably) 

Out of Control

As predicted, President Joe Biden’s careful massaging, messaging and management of the Middle East ended in the exact type of conflict he hoped to prevent.  

• Right after Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel, its U.N. mission put out a statement suing for peace.
  • You can read it here.
  • Let me translate: This is punching someone in the nose on the playground and then running to the teacher…

Quite literally things are out of control for the president of the United States.

• The situation room: Glenn Greenwald – hardly a Trump lover – writes on X, “The situation in the Middle East is as dangerous as it’s been in a long time, and the US President has no functional brain, and the Vice President is focused solely on ascending to power. We are thus again faced with the question: who is making decisions for the US Govt?”
• Will President Biden speak? Will Vice President Harris? Trump did.
• WEAK! The United States promised “severe consequences” if Iran attacked Israel… Jake Sullivan couldn’t even say today what those would be. 

Look forward: America now looks at Trump and Harris through the lens of a wartime president.

• This clip of Harris from last October on “60 Minutes” won’t wear well.
  • “What’s the message to Iran?” Harris: “Don’t.”
  • Again when the president or vice president says something – it must mean something. 
• Optics: Team Harris will try to make her look plausibly presidential during this crisis.
  • Will we get a picture of Biden and Harris looking presidential in the situation room?
  • When Biden talks, will she be there?
  • Will she answer questions?
    • Trap: Her picture at FEMA headquarters didn’t age well – as one post asked,“Why is Kamala Harris leading FEMA meetings? I’ve been assured as vice president that she has no power and is not responsible for anything.”
      • Thought bubble: JD Vance could take the gloves off tonight with attacks like this. 

To be fair: When Trump said things on the international stage, they meant a lot. 

Trump statement today:  

• “When I was President, Iran was in total check. They were starved for cash, fully contained, and desperate to make a deal. Kamala flooded them with American cash and, ever since, they’ve been exporting terror all over, and unraveling the Middle East.”
• Fact check: True
• He will speak later. 
• Watch for a campaign ad with this side-by-side. 

It’s too early to tell and there are far, far too many variables to make a prediction of what will happen. 

• Israel promises “serious consequences” for the attack – that can mean many things.
  • Iran’s nuclear facilities
  • Iran’s oil facilities
  • Iran’s missile facilities
  • Iran’s command and control and military headquarters 

View from Iran: Sun Tzu says “know the enemy” — today’s attack indicates the Ayatollah is worried about his own survival internally. 

Watch tonight: We’ll see you at 7 p.m. ET. with former Ambassador John Bolton and retired General Philip Breedlove.

Sound smart: In the past 24 hours, the Biden administration did a 180 from 10 months of demanding cease-fires to now wanting credit for backing Israel.

• Here are the Politico leaks. 

Hottest take: “Life happens fast.”

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.