NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 33 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +4.2, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 56 to 49 in favor of Harris.

War Notes today is filed from the Sheetz gas station in Clearfield, Pennsylvania — we give our thanks to the team here for fast Wi-Fi, good coffee and clean bathrooms. 

We are on the road in Pennsylvania today ahead of the Senate debate here.

• Thought bubble: Who knew Pennsylvania was so big … hence, we have an abbreviated War Notes today as we head to Harrisburg.   
• Tonight, “On Balance” comes to you from the banks of the Susquehanna in Harrisburg.
  • Control of the Senate and White House flows down the river through rural Pennsylvania — an area James Carville once referred to as “Alabama without Black people.” 
  • Fentanyl, fracking and fertility will decide the election here.
    • We’ve talked to voters, the owner of a small fracking company and a sheriff who lost his son to fentanyl — we’ll have those interviews tonight.
      • Local knowledge: Pennsylvania oil is almost yellow in color — see us below testing a new well. 

Horse race note: The betting odds are moving toward Trump, and momentum right now is on his side. 

• Look back: We told you a month ago there were very few things that could get better for Harris and a lot that could get worse …

1. The port strike gives Team Biden no good options
   1. They are caught between supporting the longshoremen and stopping rising prices and panic-buying
      1. Biden can order them back to work but says he won’t. 
   2. Republicans can still screw it up — Dave McCormick’s answer on the port strike stunned us; watch that tonight. 
2. $750 payments to those who lost everything in Helene seem insulting
   1. Especially when Team Biden says FEMA needs more money since they spent their budget on the illegal immigration crisis 
   2. Never mind the recent announcement of $2.4 billion in aid to Ukraine
      1. Do the math — if we assume Helene destroyed 150,000 homes, that $2.4 billion means $16,000 per house. 
3. While the Middle East crisis isn’t top of mind right now, even President Biden’s most ardent media supporters admit he’s lost control.
   1. Now, Biden reportedly hopes to “limit” Israel’s response to Iran’s attack rather than prevent it. 
   2. Will they ever learn that “managing” the Middle East doesn’t work? 

• In trouble: MSNBC asked Harris’ spokesman, because she doesn’t do interviews, about these issues “beyond (her) control.”
  • The problem:
    • Biden and Harris could order the port workers back on the job.
    • FEMA works for Biden and Harris — remember the picture of her at FEMA headquarters a few days ago.
    • Biden is the “commander in chief,” and Harris is the last person in the room. Is this an admission their Middle East policy completely failed?

Only Hope

The Department of Justice says it’s way too close to the election to stop noncitizens from voting …

• But not too close for a major legal filing accusing one of the candidates of crimes. 

Jack Smith’s filing and the possible unsealing of more records from the government’s Jan. 6 case against Trump is Harris’ only hope to switch the narrative and momentum.

Fact check: Polling shows those persuadable by the “threat to democracy” attacks from Democrats have already been persuaded. 

• And the most definitive poll on the issue says swing-state voters favor Trump on protecting democracy. 

Outrage

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp calling out the Biden-Harris administration for the federal response to Hurricane Helene should ring alarm bells for Democrats.  

• Kemp’s popularity in Georgia comes from having stood up to Trump, creating a booming economy while still remaining a staunch conservative. 

Again, the Hurricane Helene response stories will only get worse for Biden and Harris.

• There is literally nothing they can do to turn the story around. 

Stop Buying Toilet Paper!

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ordered the National Guard to start unloading container ships during the longshoremen strike.

• It’s a gutsy move that, if anything, helps Harris’ reelection bid. 

But, it’s not enough to stop reported panic buying of toilet paper across the country. 

• Thought bubble: What is our obsession with toilet paper? It doesn’t come on ships anyway! 

As predicted: The media is turning on longshoreman union boss Harold Daggett.

• The Wall Street Journal delivers a devastating takedown of him. 
• Conservative commentator Mark Levin is outraged. 

Look forward: In two weeks (as Daggett predicted in his interview), prices will go up significantly. and real shortages will begin.

• Biden and Harris say they won’t interfere to stay pro-union. 
• We already have shortages because of COVID-19-like buying and hoarding.
• It’s five weeks to the election — things are about to get interesting. 
• Golden rule: Never underestimate Republicans’ ability to screw things up. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.