NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 26 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • Polymarket betting odds: 54.6 to 44.8 in favor of Trump – almost a 10-point spread  

YIKES!!!  

Maybe Democrats really don’t care about beating Donald Trump. 

• We said the same thing when they refused to replace the clearly impaired Joe Biden to take on Trump.
  • Then, they replaced Biden with a clearly flawed candidate.

• After her initial meteoric launch, and with effectively unlimited money, Vice President Kamala Harris is performing about as well as she did when she ran for president in 2020. 
• Alex Shephard of The New Republic — hardly a right-wing operation — writes, “A close look at her failed primary campaign suggests Harris has evolved less than previously assumed. There’s still time for her to change, however—but it’s running out.”
  • Shephard makes some good points, and yes, Harris is better on the stump.
• Fair question: How much of any enthusiasm for Harris is because she is seen as able to beat Trump rather than out of excitement for her?

Money woes: She is the billion-dollar woman — and nothing kills a bad product faster than good advertising. 

Time isn’t her friend: In each interview and unscripted moment, she provides Team Trump with a readymade attack ad. 

• For example: Her second bite at the “How are you different than Joe Biden?” question was just more platitudes:
  • “Sure. Well, I mean, I’m obviously not Joe Biden. So that would be one change. But also, I think it’s important to say with 28 days to go, I’m not Donald Trump.”
• Being not Donald Trump worked in 2020, but it’s not working in 2024.
  • But Harris also wants to not be Biden — she just can’t decide how.

What I am thinking: Much like the winds of a hurricane whip around on the back side of the eye, the very same winds that pushed Harris on a 45-day sugar high are now bringing the race back to pre-Trump-Biden debate numbers. 

• The write-up: The Kamala Harris slide in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin poses an existential threat to her campaign and three key Senate seats — Mike Allen and Jim VandeHai deliver the goods. 

What I am reading: 

• Chris Cillizza quoted our good friend and data guru Scott Tranter in his newsletter today.
• “Stalled and Even or Stalled and Behind?” headlined Mark Halperin’s morning email, pointing out Emerson College swing state polling that is very favorable to Trump.

What I am thinking: Obama magic — he heads to Pittsburgh tonight to start his surrogate sprint for Harris.

• Will it work? History tells us Obama (like Trump) is a great campaigner for himself but not others …
• From The New York Times: “‘You bring in someone like Barack Obama to inspire people, to encourage them to participate and to set the stakes and urge them to vote,’ said David Axelrod, a former top strategist for Mr. Obama. ‘There’s no one better.”
• Thought bubble: I thought beating Donald Trump and electing the first female president would inspire everyone — why do they need Obama?
  • Go deeper with our War Notes write-up from last week when Team Harris announced the Obama comeback tour. 

Before you go: Tim Walz conducted a rally as a paid professional “gamer” played video games on a split screen — no, I am serious.

• Thought bubble: This is the way Walz recovers from the debate? 

Still Screwed

The western North Carolina folks are still screwed, and power outages in America go from the Tennessee border all the way down Key West … just before the election … think about that on many levels. 

• Can or will folks who lost their homes actually vote?
  • The late change in voting rules will unquestionably get pushback from the losing side, especially since the overwhelming majority of those affected by Helene in North Carolina and Georgia are Trump voters. 
  • Will it juice turnout because people are so angry at the Biden administration’s response to Helene?
  • Will the overcompensation of the Biden administration’s reaction to Milton make up for it?

Wait for it: New York City paid $2.3 billion to house illegal immigrants over the past 3 years (at about $352 per night) and is looking for 14,000 hotel rooms going forward. 

• Perception is reality: Harris celebrated giving Helene victims a one-time payment of $750. 

What I am thinking: We knew there would be a reckoning for the billions (maybe tens of billions) spent on supporting the illegal immigrants let in over the past three years …

• Who knew it would be a hurricane hitting North Carolina’s mountains to bring it 
• Biden’s promise to crack down on “price gouging” is laughable … sorry, but that isn’t the problem. 

Drip Drip Drip:

• New clips continue to roll out of FEMA celebrating its No. 1 strategic priority — their words, not mine: Equity. 
• Thought bubble: When you tell folks they don’t matter because of their skin color, don’t be surprised when they get angry over being ignored. 

Bright spot: The Milton response in Florida is textbook.

• Zoom out: Folks in Florida mostly rely on the state rather than the federal government. 
• Side by side: Watching the press conferences of Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is really quite something. 

SAME CBS

The same CBS that … 

• Reportedly said Jerusalem is not in Israel 
• Said that asking tough questions of an antisemite is racist and against their standards … 
• Allegedly gave the questions ahead of time to one guest 
• Offered two edit versions to a key question of Harris — and won’t release the transcript 
• And treated the father of an Israeli hostage like a hostile ambassador 

… is the same CBS that:

• Lampooned Trump for not doing a “60 Minutes” interview

• Delivered the fake Bush draft documents a few weeks before the 2004 election 
• Whose anchors made their disdain for JD Vance utterly apparent in the VP debate

Doubling down: 

• It’s ungentlemanly to rejoice in the trials of others, even when the most sanctimonious get exposed for what they are. 
• But the dogma that’s overtaken CBS is a good reminder of how easily one can be blinded by one’s own righteousness and bias. 

Trust is hard to earn and easy to lose — we work every day and night to stay true to facts. Yes, we give you analysis, but we never cheerlead or throw the game. 

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Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.