NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 25 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +2.9, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • Polymarket betting odds: 54.6 to 44.8 in favor of Trump – almost a 10-point spread. 
    

Welcome to the weekend! I hope you enjoy a beautiful fall weekend of football, family and fun.

• What I am watching: What will Israel do? The Economist lays out their options.
• Check out this article from Axios on whether Benjamin Netanyahu will listen to Joe Biden’s pleas for restraint.

Obama Gave Us Trump

WARNING: For all Democrats giddy about former President Barack Obama hitting the campaign trail for Vice President Kamala Harris:

• Yes, he is a once-in-a-generation political talent. 
• Yes, he is one of the great rhetorical speakers in political history.
• Yes, polling shows he would win in a landslide if running again.
• But … Obama is the reason Donald Trump got elected. 

The decision to bring Obama out of retirement for a comeback tour of the swing states reveals a few unquestionable truths:

• Harris’ internal numbers terrify Democrats, especially the Obama brain trust like David Plouffe and David Axelrod.
  • The internals are reportedly far worse than public polling and betting markets, which show Harris struggling and stalling but not yet decisively losing. 
• Said team realizes Harris isn’t the candidate they hoped she would be or become
  • They are at war with the army they have
  • They are losing 
  • And with 25 days until the election, there are lots of bad things that can happen for Harris, and getting in a win to change momentum will be hard, 
• They worry more about losing right now than people watching Obama and comparing him to Harris. 

What I am watching: Before Obama’s appearance in Pittsburgh, he issued a warning to the assembled group backstage where he said, “We have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities … now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.”

The New York Times headlined the event saying, “A Stern Obama Tells Black Men to Drop ‘Excuses’ and Support Harris.”

• What exactly are the excuses? We’ll ask Roland Martin tonight. 

Be fair: Obama is a once-in-a-generation political talent — he is magic on the stump.

• High risk, high reward: Obama gave us Trump.
  • Scott Jennings had a brutal take on CNN on why Obama won’t move the needle and why it’s a huge risk.
  • Obama brought us Trump — think back to Obama calling rural Americans people who cling to their guns and religion.
    • In a broader sense, Obama’s policies, personality and rhetoric told rural working-class whites it was their fault.
      • Trump said he was fighting for them. 
  • Trump is at his best when running against Obama — it’s personal between them. 

On the stump: Last night, Obama did his usual ridicule routine:

• He compared Trump to Fidel Castro.
• He brought back Pence and Jan. 6.
• He made fun of Trump hawking Bibles – and everything else. 
• Thought bubble: That works at fundraisers in Martha’s Vineyard or holding court at George Clooney’s, but does it resonate with working-class voters? I don’t think so.
  • And it could backfire, much like Obama’s rhetoric gave us Trump. 

Obama’s real job is to convince young Black men that Kamala Harris cares about people like them.

• Pro tip: When a candidate needs someone else to convince a key constituency someone cares about people like them … there is a problem. 

Counternarrative: Our partners at The Hill write, “Democrats fear Harris losing too many male voters to Trump.”

• Why is there no discussion of how Harris should or could change to help assuage their mistrust? 

Last thought: Wasn’t Tim Walz picked to appeal to men? 

• It’s not working out well.
  • Watch Walz on ABC for another softball interview that he misses wildly. 

Can Trump Do It?

Growing up, my father would always warn me about loan documents that, somewhere toward the end, would bury the language “all of the above notwithstanding.” 

• I never asked, but my guess is those warnings came from his father, who, like many real estate folks, got wiped out in the Great Depression. 

So, all of the above notwithstanding …

• Never underestimate Trump’s ability to screw things up. 
• Yesterday, we noted that Trump could get off the campaign trail and just replay Harris’ answer on “The View” every day. 

Our buddy Chris Cillizza put it more bluntly this morning in his “radical proposal” for Trump:

• You should read the whole thing. 
• But the gist is that Trump off the trail is better than Trump on the trail.  
• Cillizza writes, “Here’s why: People don’t like Trump. Even undecided voters find him arrogant, rude, bullying — all the things he is. Every time he does another rally or another interview, he reinforces those traits to people. He puts it right smack dab in front of their faces.”

If you missed it: Go back and watch our conversation with George Will yesterday. 

• Trump is his own worst enemy. 

Buckle up: His rally (today) in Aurora, Colorado, and on October 27 in New York at Madison Square Garden will be real tests of his discipline.

• Be fair: As Biden imploded post-debate, Trump largely melted into the background. 

Hi, Pot!

Sometimes, the simplest questions create the most problems — like “Will you accept the results of the election?”

• Axios asked that of some of Trump’s harshest critics — you know, the real protectors of democracy, like Jamie Raskin.
• Turns out their answers aren’t that much different than those of Trump and Vance, who they call threats to democracy. 

Popcorn: Watch tonight as our buddy Chris Hahn twists himself into a verbal pretzel trying to explain why it’s OK when Democrats won’t accept election results. 

If we have time:

• We’ll ask him about the new rhetoric from the Left’s favorite neo-Marxist antisemite, Ta-Nehisi Coates.
• And about Harris surrogate and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who made a bizarre Instagram video feeding Doritos to a woman on her knees.  

“The Apprentice”

I was quite skeptical going into our interview of Ali Abbasi — he directed the new biopic movie about a young Donald Trump, “The Apprentice.”

• The movie opens tonight. You can watch the trailer here … even The Wall Street Journal likes it. 
• It turned out to be a fascinating interview. 

Watch tonight: Our conversation with Abbasi. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.