Analysts predict 67% chance of recession within a year
- The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares a recession
- Analysts develop their own formulas because NBER often lags behind events
- Signs of a recession include increased layoffs and high unemployment
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(NewsNation) — The U.S. has a 67% chance of having a recession declared, according to one formula.
The National Bureau of Economic Research is the organization that officially declares a recession, but it often lags behind actual events, sometimes by months. To predict when a recession might happen, analysts have built their own models to try to predict the economic cycle.
One formula, based primarily on Treasury yields, indicates there is a 67% chance of a recession being declared with a start date falling between April 2023 and April 2024.
Some believe the Federal Reserve’s continued efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates will result in a recession. Informally, a recession happens after six months of economic downturn. But other signs of a slump include increased layoffs and high unemployment.
