(NewsNation) — Gas prices have been slowly dropping in the United States, after rising to over $5 per gallon in June, but mother nature may soon disrupt that decline.

Hurricane season is threatening to send gas prices, which currently sit at $4.52 per gallon on average nationwide, back on the climb, according to Debnil Chowdhury of S&P Global.

Chowdhury said if a hurricane struck in the refining sector of the U.S. around Houston or Louisiana, then prices could shoot back up.

“The last two years we have inventory at relatively high levels entering summers, so Hurricane Laura, Marco and Ida actually had about a 15% increase in price, which would basically put us back to where we were before this decline and the highs that we saw about a month ago,” Chowdhury said. “If we have a hurricane like Hurricane Harvey hit, Hurricane Harvey actually had about a 40% increase in price.”

The 2022 hurricane season is expected to produce 14 to 21 named storms and 6 to 10 hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.

“Over the next couple of months without a hurricane hitting the coast it’s difficult to tell which way prices are going to go,” Chowdhury said. “We could have higher crude oil prices driven by lower supply as Europe enacts their sanctions against Russian crude, but at the same time the bidders are mentioning we are seeing lower demand due to the higher prices.”