KANSAS CITY, Mo. (WDAF) — Lower gas prices: That’s the forecast for 2024, offering relief for drivers in the new year.

GasBuddy is predicting U.S. drivers will spend, on average, $3.38 per gallon next year. That’s 13 cents less than this year’s national average. It’s also a far cry from where we were two years ago when prices skyrocketed and drivers paid nearly $5 on average nationwide for gas.

But what’s the reason behind the expected decrease?

Experts say the United States is now a powerhouse in oil production, yielding more crude oil than any other country in the world. It gives the country a cushion should something happen — like a hurricane damaging refineries or OPEC cutting its supply — that disrupts oil production.

“We continue to mend from things like the pandemic — which brought a lot of imbalances, a lot of very high inflation, which is now slowing down and in some cases going back,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis.

“We’re seeing disinflation. Part of that is because Russia’s war in Ukraine is more in the rearview now. The start was almost two years ago, and oil production hasn’t changed a whole lot. So as we continue to see COVID-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine fade into the rearview, oil production is up.”

It’s also an election year in 2024, and many Americans might believe politics will help gas prices. But GasBuddy’s experts say not so fast.

Changing prices at the pump have less to do with elections and more to do with seasons. Prices are expected to increase in the spring and decrease in the fall, like the do every year.

Nationwide, GasBuddy doesn’t expect gas to reach the $4 average mark at all next year, predicting it will top out at $3.67 a gallon in May and drop as low as $2.99 on average next December.