(NewsNation) — Despite Kamala Harris’ energetic Democratic National Convention appearances and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of former President Donald Trump, very little has shifted in the political world, said Allan Lichtman.
A historian and American University professor considered the Nostradamus of elections, Lichtman told “CUOMO” this week’s political intrigue wasn’t very impactful at all.
“Conventions don’t predict elections,” he said. “But third parties do figure into my 13 ‘keys’ to the White House.”
Though third-party candidates can be pivotal, especially for an incumbent, Lichtman said RFK Jr.’s standings were so low, his leaving the race will not change much.
“It probably wouldn’t hurt the incumbents, even if he had stayed in the race, because he was heading down into the low single digits, way below the threshold needed to turn that key,” he added. “And this idea that he could somehow turn, you know, votes over to Trump is absolute nonsense.”
Allan Lichtman’s keys to the White House
Here are Lichtman’s 13 keys, or factors, that he says can determine who wins the White House:
- Party mandate
- Party contest
- Incumbency
- Third party
- Short-term economy
- Long-term economy
- Policy change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign/military policy failure
- Foreign/military policy success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
