Centenarian population projected to quadruple by 2054

Number of people in U.S. over the age of 100 expected to mushroom
Population trending older as life expectancy gets longer, birth rates drop
Globally, there are about 722,000 centenarians, according to UN

Updated: Jan 9, 2024 / 11:44 PM CST

FILE – An envelope containing a 2020 census letter mailed to a U.S. resident sits on a desk on on April 5, 2020, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)

(NewsNation) — The U.S. population of people 100 and older is expected to increase fourfold over the next 30 years, according to Census Bureau projections.

The Pew Research Center highlighted the estimate in a blog post Tuesday, noting that the number of centenarians in the United States has steadily gone up since 1950. The population is expected to go from an estimated 101,000 in 2024 to about 422,000 in 2054.

Women and white adults make up the majority of centenarians, a trend that is projected to increase through 2054, though their share will decrease, according to Pew. Today, more than three-quarters (78%) of centenarians are women and 22% are men. In 30 years, the population is projected to be 68% women and 32% men.

Generally speaking, the U.S. population is trending older as life expectancy gets longer and birth rates decline. The average life expectancy for adults is about 76, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

From 2007 to 2013, birth rates declined an average of 2% per year and 1% per year from 2014 to 2019, according to the CDC. Rates increased by 1% in 2021 compared to 2020 but still are lower than figures from 2019.

Currently, adults age 65 or older make up about 18% of the population, according to Pew. That share is projected to jump to 23% by 2054.

Globally, there are about 722,000 centenarians, according to the United Nations population projections for 2024. The agency sees that number growing more than fivefold by 2054 to about 3.98 million.

NewsNation affiliate KTLA contributed to this report.