NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 55 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3.6, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 56 to 47 in favor of Harris – note the change from yesterday’s 53 to 52. 

Editor’s note: A few thoughts on the train from Philly to the swamp with at least two senators, at least one House member and many of the network folks — yes, Amtrak is still late even when members of Congress are onboard. As usual with War Notes and “On Balance,” we will give you a perspective none of them will. 

Reality Check

The coverage of the debate matches the debate itself — completely biased towards Vice President Harris and unfair to former President Trump. That doesn’t mean Trump did well. 

 I woke up this morning, turned on the TV and did my usual reading to find:

• Harris delivered the performance of a lifetime, a master class of baiting Trump, a symphony of democracy for undecided voters and a knockout blow while Trump peddled in the lies of a tired old fool. 
• Trump will soon be vanquished to the dustbin of history. 
• “Trump got destroyed.”
• “Harris’ alpha female debate,” headlines Politico’s fawning piece.
• Taylor Swift will unite childless cat ladies to bring Trump destruction. 

As usual, the spin and coverage don’t match reality, even the same media’s own reporting:

• From Reuters: “Reuters interviewed 10 people who were still unsure how they were going to vote in the Nov. 5 election before they watched the debate. Six said afterward they would now either vote for Trump or were leaning toward backing him. Three said they would now back Harris and one was still unsure how he would vote.”
• CNN’s poll showed 63% thought Harris won, and that includes Trump supporters who didn’t love their guy’s performance.
  • That’s hardly a knockout.
• The New York Times headlines, “Pundits Said Harris Won the Debate. Undecided Voters Weren’t So Sure.”
• CNN’s snap poll showed Trump postdebate was doing two points better on the economy and Harris doing two points worse than before.  
• CNN’s undecided voter panel didn’t seem that impressed. 

My fair analysis: 

• There were no knockouts, which means the race really doesn’t change 
• Harris effectively provoked Trump and delivered a far better performance
  • Team Harris studied Trump and knew where to push for a reaction.
    • Crowd size, people leaving his rallies
    • The 2020 election
    • Wharton professors not liking his economic plan
    • The Central Park Five 
    • The “late, great John McCain” 
    • Haitians eating pets 
• During NewsNation special coverage, Bill O’Reilly called Trump’s response about Haitians eating pets something “SNL would do”
• Conservatives are completely justified in complaining about moderators, but when you are complaining about the refs, you lost!
  • One set of questions consisted of:
    • “Mr. Trump, why are you a racist?”
    • “Ms. Harris, what do you think of Trump being a racist?”
  • The moderators fact-checked Harris zero times despite some considerable whoppers
  • The moderators SAVED Harris during the abortion section by moving on when Trump had her on the ropes 
  • ABC did not bring up Sept. 11, China or fentanyl
  • Much like with the prosecutions against Trump, there are people who don’t like Trump but dislike the prosecutions more. Conservatives who don’t like Trump will be angered by ABC’s treatment
    • Erick Erickson’s newsletter is a perfect example 
• Harris’s handshake was BRILLIANT
  • There was a second handshake this morning at the Sept. 11 ground zero site
• Trump still won’t do the hard work of debate prep and practice …
  • His lack of discipline is exactly what scares swing voters. 
  • Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban is not a role model. 
• Chris Christie said whoever prepared him should be fired — Trump prepared himself … ask him! 
• Trump bringing fringe conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer on the plane with him to Philadelphia tells every sane voter he fully embraces crazy.
  • If Harris brought Mehdi Hasan to the debate, we would say the same thing: fair is fair. 
• Team Obama did an incredible job prepping and molding a very weak principal.
  • The well-rehearsed lines seemed just that — rehearsed — which made them far less effective. 
  • She failed miserably to go even an inch below the surface of scripted attacks on Trump, which hurts her with the actual undecided voters as described above.
• Harris is now a plausible president, which means she “won.” 

At 9 p.m. ET tonight, the race won’t look all that much different than at 9 p.m. ET last night — much of America still wishes they had a better choice. 

Suddenly “They” Care about Springfield!

Now that headlines can proclaim “Trump falsely claims migrants eat pets,” suddenly Springfield, Ohio, is really interesting.

• Nobody cared that Clark County, Ohio, had a 52% increase in opioid deaths. 
• Nobody cared when an immigrant crashed into a school bus and killed a kid.
• Nobody cared when 20,000 migrants showed up in a town of nearly 60,000. 
• Nobody cared when PBS NewsHour did a six-minute piece about the town’s problems with Haitian immigrants and the help they bring to the workforce.
• Nobody cared about Springfield, Ohio, when manufacturing jobs left to go overseas.

Just so we are clear: Where we are talking about on I-70 between Dayton and Columbus sits forgotten America.

Some stats from Steve Joachim: 

	Springfield	Ohio
Unemployment Rate (July ’24)	5.8%	4.5%
Poverty rate (2022)	22.7%	13.4%
Median HH Income (2022)	$45,113	$65,720

Let’s be honest, if Trump and Vance were talking about all the issues brought up by residents in the PBS piece, the national media would yawn.

But now that Trump is “demonizing” immigrants for eating pets, it’s worthy of CNN’s attention.

To be fair: The Ohio attorney general reports a 911 call of a Springfield resident complaining about Haitians harvesting a goose for food. 

Watch tonight: We’ll be live in Springfield, Ohio, with Rich McHugh and Bill Monaghan to show you what’s really happening — and why you should care. 

What’s Next?

Elections and cable news are about the future: 

• At this point, Harris is out of excuses for living in the basement
  • At first she was just coronated
  • Then she was trying to pick her vice president
  • Then she was figuring out her campaign and getting staff
  • Then getting ready for the convention
  • And now she’s finished preparing for the debate 

As evidenced by The New York Times reporting above, voters want more from Harris on the issues.

When will the media advocate on behalf of their readers or viewers for Harris to answer substantive questions rather than protect her? 

The Taylor Swift Effect

Taylor Swift endorsing Harris might be the most interesting thing last night.

• Whoever choreographed it deserves a raise 
• It sure seemed Team Obama-esque in timing, stagecraft and the childless cat lady signature 
• Or maybe Team Swift does their own inhouse political consulting 

As Chris Stirewalt pointed out last night, the “gender gap” is really a “marriage gap” as single women break overwhelmingly for Democrats. 

• So how many young female unmarried Swifties who were going to vote for Trump will now go buy Harris merch? Answer that question, and you will know whether Swift’s endorsement matters! 

Thought bubble: When Taylor Swift and Dick Cheney agree on something, life is very confusing.

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.