NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here. 

For the first time in recent memory, the State of the Union Address matters. 

• That’s not to say it will be any more interesting, but the stakes are higher for a president with much to lose and little to gain. 

Pro tip: Drink coffee, not wine 

• It’s not fair. At a 38% approval rating (see below) he should have much to gain and little to lose, but politics aren’t fair. 
• Fact check: Historically for Biden, even a rockstar performance, like his after the invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, yielded no change in his poll numbers a month later. 
• Straight from White House’s talking points, read Susan Page’s USA Today article “5 things Biden really needs to do in the State of the Union.”
• The unusually silent White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients spoke to both Axios and Politico’s Playbook to lean INTO the high stakes rather than downplay them.
  • From Mike Allen’s Axios newsletter: “What to watch: Zients said Biden will remind people ‘where the economy was three years ago when the president walked into office, where we are now and where we’re headed — what his vision is for the economy.’”
  • From Playbook: “‘States of the Union are big moments,’ Zients told Playbook. ‘You could argue that this is a particularly big moment, and I think there’s no one better at handling high stakes than President Biden.’ Rather than downplay the expectations, Zients is leaning into them. ‘You’re going to see a very energized president,’ he said. ‘This is a big moment. And this president rises to those big moments.’”

State of the Politics

Biden walks into the House chamber with a 38% approval rating. 

• A helpful CNN graphic this morning showed Biden has the lowest approval rating at this time in a presidency since former President George H.W. Bush.
  • Reagan 1984 – 54%
  • Clinton 1996 – 52%
  • George W. Bush 2004 – 49%
  • Obama 2012- 49%
  • Trump 2020 – 42%
  • George H.W. Bush 1992 – 41% 
  • Biden 2024 – 38% 

Biden has a lot of work to do. 

• Both H.W. and Trump, sitting one and two spots above Biden respectively, lost their reelection bids. 

The similarities between 1992 and 2024 can’t be understated. 

• The realignment of the electorate  
• The revolt against the establishment of both parties 
• The threat (force) of a third party 
• An older single-term president who was a two-term vice president 
• Major economic dislocations and change among working-class voters 

Bonus reading: Clinton is back. A deeply reported piece by Gabriel Debenedetti delivers a message from the past. 

What to watch for:

• How long he speaks. Does Biden try to prove his youthful vigor with a Clinton-esque speech running over 90 minutes?
  • If it’s anything less than 40 minutes, he’s flirting with it being called the “shortest State of the Union” in modern history
• The obvious senior moment. His advisors say the address will prove he’s an 81-year-old man in a 61-year-old’s body. America is watching, hence the low upside and high downside potential.
  • Flipside: the bar is low. As long as he doesn’t have a major gaffe, Democrats will declare him the Ronald Reagan of our time.  

Democrats are already arguing the gaffes won’t be his fault.

• Alex Thompson and Andrew Solender write in Axios, “Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) predicted Biden would ‘get interrupted many times by my colleagues across the aisle’ to attempt to force gaffes.”
• Will Speaker Mike Johnson try to enforce a level of decorum upon his rowdy caucus?
  • To be fair: Herding cats is hard and since the “you lie” outburst in 2009…civility keeps going downhill with each state of the union. 
  • For those wondering if Johnson will tear up Biden’s speech as Pelosi famously did Trump’s – read Johnson’s memo arguing Pelosi committed a felony doing it. 

• For the first time:
  • The president faces protesters from inside his own party
    • The first planned leak of today’s speech promised U.S. military help setting up a harbor in Gaza to deliver aid, an unmistakable message to the “cease-fire now” types that have been interrupting Biden’s events. 
• Does Biden troll Trump by publicly congratulating or thanking Mitch McConnell or Mitt Romney? What about departing independent Kyrstin Sinema or conservative Democrat Joe Manchin?
• Forget the policies!
  • From Thompson and Solender’s reporting, “The bottom line: A Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said simply, ‘Let’s see some main character energy!’”

In the First Lady’s box

Since First Lady Nancy Reagan first invited the hero of Air Florida Flight 90 to sit in her box for the State of the Union Address, the spectacle of political-themed invites gives reporters an early look at the president’s focus.

• This year:
  • A woman who had to leave Texas to get an abortion
    • Message: Republicans would rather women die than not get abortions
  • An Alabama woman seeking IVF treatment
    • Message: Republicans don’t like families 
  • The Swedish Prime Minister
    • Message: Welcome to NATO, an organization Trump wants America to leave. 
  • A man who had his student loans forgiven
    • Message: Black people have more student loans than white people so working class taxpayers will subsidize those with PhDs in art history. 
  • The president of the UAW
    • Message: Trump is anti-union, despite union members continuing to support him. 

Not in the First Lady’s box:

• Laken Riley’s parents (though, they were invited by Rep. Mike Collins and declined the invitation) or any victims of crime committed by illegal immigrants
• Any crime victims
• Someone from East Palestine, particularly in the news again now because we just learned the controlled burn that spread all the bad chemicals wasn’t needed
• Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.