Leland Vittert’s War Notes: Debate Day — It Started in Tuscaloosa

NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show.

The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher

IF – and it’s a BIG IF – Nikki Haley, Ron Desantis or Vivek Ramaswamy end up as the Republican nominee, we will look back and say, “It started in Tuscaloosa.”

Ground truth:
- We are 40 days from the Iowa caucuses, and then eight days after that comes New Hampshire. Reasonable people can agree for the Republicans not named Donald Trump left in the race that one of these three must beat Trump in either Iowa or New Hampshire for us to have a ball game.
It’s win or go home – and winning won’t come from body slamming another candidate polling in the low teens.
- Thought bubble 💭: The American people (Democrats too) say they want leadership, inspiration and optimism, not grievance.
  - FACT: Leadership, inspiration and optimism are difficult for candidates appealing to Republican primary voters obsessed with grievance populism.
Haley’s exposed flank:
- The Republican Base “obsessed with grievance populism” view Haley’s support from JP Morgan Chairman Jamie Diamond and Blackrock’s Larry Fink as a vice of establishment Republicans, not a virtue.
  - Expect an attack from DeSantis on that tonight as shown by this clip.

Tonight 8 p.m. ET on NewsNation – www.JOINnn.com to find on your home cable. Cuomo and I will have the pre-game starting at 6 p.m. ET.

The “Dictator” Not in the Room

Sean Hannity asked Trump during an Iowa town hall last night: “Under no circumstances, you are promising America tonight, you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?”

Trump said, “Except for day one. We’re closing the border and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that I’m not a dictator.”
Charlie Nash (@CharlieNash) explained the exchange on Mediate.
What’s Really Happening:
- Trump knows saying outrageous things will focus all attention on him and then he can play the victim. It worked last night – as it has worked hundreds of times before.
- He now owns the news cycle and he knows media attacks like this one from Morning Joe this morning only help him with the base, especially since he’s playing into Liz Cheney’s wildly successful book media tour, as highlighted by Roger Friedman’s reporting on ShowBiz 411.

Trump once again makes himself the center of the debate without attending.

I have no insight into NewsNation Debate prep — it’s a vault — but Trump’s comments virtually assure him as a center point of the debate:

Will you commit to not being a dictator?
How can you promise to support a nominee who says he might be a dictator?
Is saying you will be a dictator disqualifying?

By forcing candidates to talk about Trump and live in the past, all of these questions prevent anyone from breaking out and Trump can win without showing up.

That was Quick

After Israel unleashed a ferocious — and justified — attack on American media and the left for their silence on the rapes and extreme sexual violence against civilian Israelis, the coverage of “innocent and suffering Palestinains” all but disappeared.

We predict: The “suffering Palestinians blaming evil Israelis” stories will come back but, much like the battlefield in Gaza, Israel is not done in its PR war.
In the Israelis’ PR arsenal:
- We have yet to publicly see the 45 minute video of Hamas Helmet Cam rape and torture videos Israel is showing journalists.
  - West Point Professor John Spencer gives you his impressions on X.
- We have yet to hear from Oct. 7 rape survivors.
- We have yet to hear from the released female hostages.
- We have yet to hear from the parents (or seen the pictures) of babies roasted alive in ovens.
The American media – no matter how much they hate Israel and love their progressive values, hate to be ridiculed and shamed more.
Looking forward: Will Israel flipping the script shame the media into giving Israel fair coverage and more weight to Israel’s future claims, like Hamas command centers in hospitals?

‘Genital Examination’ Warnings

Martha Williams from the Daily Mail reports that Senator Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warned all female athletes will undergo “genital examinations” because of bans on biological men in women’s sports.

The article quotes her as saying: “We are talking about opening up all women and girls to genital examinations when they are underage, potentially just because someone can point to someone and say, I don’t think you are a girl.”
Redefining the battlefield:
- Republicans defined the transgender battlefield on the basis of fairness and general norms.
  - Fact box: No suburban mom or dad wants an 18 year-old boy on a soccer field or in a locker room with their 15 year-old girl.
- In politics, like in war, defining the battlefield is 90 percent of the fight.
- AOC’s warning isn’t something she just came up with. It’s a well thought out plan to redefine the battlefield from fairness and locker rooms to “genital examinations,” something suburban moms and dads will also have a problem with.

Yes – She Really Said That

According to reporting from Joe Gould, Anthony Adragna and Connor O’Brien at Politico, Nevada Senator Deb Fischer said. “When you have Deb Fischer walking out, you have a problem,” after leaving a Senate briefing on Israel and Ukraine.
- This comes out of a story about Republican senators leaving the briefing because they claim “the administration (refused) to engage on border issues.”
Yes, he really said that. In the same briefing, Lindsay Graham dropped “an f-bomb on a general.”
Watch our discussion from last night with Niall Stanage when we explained how Ukraine went from the moral and political issue of our time to both parties’ third rail.

Taylor Swift – Person of the Year

Time magazine names Taylor Swift person of the year for 2023, but she might define 2024.
Margie Omero Tweeted, “In recent focus groups of women 50+ we did w/ @KSoltisAnderson for @AARP, when we asked ‘what’s going well in the country today?’ someone said ‘Taylor Swift.’”
Before you make fun of the pick:
- As we told you on the program weeks ago Swift sold out shows in the biggest cities of the most crucial swing states: PA, GA, MI, NV.
- Economic reality: the person who pays $1,000 for a concert ticket will listen to that singer’s voice on politics.
- Political Reality: If Swift takes a side in 2024 and half of her concert goers in each of those states vote accordingly, she will swing the election.