NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 21 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +2.9, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • Polymarket betting odds: 57.9 to 42 in favor of Trump.  

GREAT NEWS: Democracy is working, says the chief operating officer for the Georgia secretary of state, who kicked off early voting today.

• He writes on X, “This 1st day of early voting is a blowout. As of noon, we are at 122,049 voters so far today. The record 1st day was 2020, with 136,000 votes cast. We will be blowing past the previous First Day record. Great job counties, avg check in time is 55 seconds.”
• Thought bubble: Fifty-five seconds — and I thought the new Georgia election laws were “Jim Crow 2.0”

Panicky vs. Too Cocky

The fog of war is real — so is the fog of elections. It’s very, very difficult to see what’s happening as it’s happening in the last month – just ask everyone who was wrong in 2016.  

• As we’ve laid out for the past week, it’s clear the momentum favors Trump — and he’s indisputably in a better position than he was in 2016 or 2020. 
• Erick Erickson lays out a number of the polling numbers in Trump’s favor 
• Matt Drudge, who turned on Trump, just changed his front page to “American Psycho.”
  • The anti-Trump crowd is now in panic mode.

These are all data points, but the polling was wrong in 2016 and 2020, overestimating support for both Clinton and Biden. 

• Who is to say the polling can’t be wrong in favor of Trump this time around?

Programming alert: Bill O’Reilly lays out “panicking” Democrats in his “Talking Points Memo.” He will be on tonight to discuss whether Republicans are getting a little too cocky — after all, white women might break for Harris. 

Worst news coming: Twenty-one days out, there are very few bad things left to happen to Trump and a lot of bad that can happen to Harris. 

What I am watching: MSNBC’s Joy Reid with the call, saying the polls are fake — it’s a setup — and the Black and brown men moving to Trump are also fascists.

• Some of the highlights:
  • “Because, unfortunately, we do have a fascist groundswell in parts of this country, mainly around white men, let’s be clear. But in small pockets of Black and brown men too.”
  • “Entrepreneurial Republican pollsters can certainly gain favor with Trump, who’s apparently fuming about Vice President Harris’ billion-dollar fundraising and positive press.”

• “There’s the more sinister explanation that if Trump, Republican pollsters and even jittery Democrats convince enough people that his victory is inevitable, how much easier would it be to claim that the election was stolen if he loses?”
• Thought bubble: I dunno, but this kind of rhetoric undermines elections … isn’t that a threat to democracy? Where are the disinformation police?  

Red Lines that Aren’t

The next president will inherit an America less respected or powerful in the world than at any time since World War II — hence why Trump rightly says we are one bad bottle of vodka away from World War III.  

• In the past few days, America once again gave comfort to our greatest enemy in the Middle East (Iran) and threatened our greatest ally (Israel). 

This will matter: We are now threatening our own ally by cutting off military aid to appease the pro-Hamas wing of the Democratic Party. 

• Secretaries Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin wrote a letter to Israel threatening to cut U.S. military aid if Israel didn’t let more humanitarian aid into Gaza. 

But wait — there’s more: We also publicly reigned in Israel, telling them not to attack Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities after Iran attacked the Jewish state with over 200 ballistic missiles.

And yet there is more — the White House “threatened Iran” over a plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. 

Reuters reports, “‘We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority, and we strongly condemn Iran for these brazen threats. Should Iran attack any of our citizens, including those who continue to serve the United States or those who formerly served, Iran will face severe consequences,’ said White House National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett.” 

• Guess what, Savett? Nobody in the world takes threats of “severe consequences” seriously anymore.

Iranian militias killed three U.S. service members and fired thousands of rockets at U.S. ships.

• We’ve done nothing.

We told Iran not to attack Israel over and over — remember “Don’t”?

• They did so with zero consequences. 

We told Putin not to invade Ukraine — remember, “Don’t”? 

• Our response focused on not escalating rather than on Ukraine winning.

We told Israel not to go into Lebanon.

• They did. 

America is weak-kneed, and our adversaries know it. 

• What I am reading: Two stories from The Wall Street Journal laying out a series of coordinated drone flights over America’s most sensitive military bases and new reporting that China’s spying is simply overwhelming to American counterintelligence. 

Coming up: The October surprise could be an Israel-Iran or Taiwan-China war. 

Watch tonight: Admiral James Stavridis joins us — he’s out with a new book, “The Restless Wave” — to discuss whether America can once again rule the world as a force for good. 

A President for Black Men

Harris pinned to the top of her social media feed, “Black men deserve a president who cares about making their lives better.”

• Fair questions: Ah, what about the rest of us who aren’t Black men? 
• She goes on to list a number of policy proposals, including a million forgivable $20,000 loans to Black entrepreneurs.
  • This will matter: One of your policies promises loan forgiveness based on race.
    • 1. Isn’t that illegal?
    • 2. Who gets to decide who is Black enough for loan forgiveness?
  • Think about it: Democrats have long promised Black voters handouts for their votes — at some point, people realize they are empty promises. 

Warning bells: CNN pulled Don Lemon back from the Hamptons to talk about the lack of Black men supporting Harris.

• Click here for a great screen grab.
• Thought bubble: Lemon’s ideas are exactly why young Black men AREN’T supporting Harris. 

What I am thinking: This is a vicious cycle.

• Weakness with Black men is forcing her to lean into the same intersectional handouts that white working-class men hate. 
• Look back: On Friday, Roland Martin told me Harris didn’t have a problem with Black men — you can watch the clip from his X page.
  • Martin should tell the Harris campaign because they certainly think they do! 

It gets worse: The radical shift in young minority males to Trump extends to Latinos. Gabe Fleisher has an excellent breakdown of the data. 

Watch again: Remember Jennifer Garner saying “woo” for strong men supporting Harris as Kirsten Fleming opines in The New York Post that “belittling men is making it worse.” 

What I am thinking: The massive realignment from race to class and sex playing a larger defining role in the election isn’t done yet. 

• White women, for example, might end up voting Democratic for the first time in decades, yet nobody is talking about that. 

Result: Who knows where this ends up?

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.