NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here. 

Since I have had two long weeks and am looking forward to golf with my dad this weekend, indulge me in a golf metaphor to set up today. 

In golf when a high handicapper (such as myself) is having a few good holes and thinks they finally “figured it out,” the laws of golf and life says they will revert to the mean. My dad will remind me of this too. 

In the same sense, Trump had a pretty awesome three weeks, people rightfully talked about him having “figured it out.” The new Trump. The more disciplined Trump. 

Both with the JD Vance pick and now his handling of the coming debate(s) with Harris, he is quickly reverting to the mean. 

Proving the first rule of politics correct once again: Never underestimate Republicans’ (Trump’s) ability to screw something up. 

Will They Debate? Yes!

Of course Trump and Harris will debate. Trump suggesting otherwise in a statement because she wasn’t the Democratic nominee and former President Barack Obama hadn’t endorsed her yet appeared stupid when he put it out. 

• Click here to read about the statement. It appears to have backfired…

Made even dumber when Obama quickly endorsed Harris. 

Now Harris and Democrats can rightfully call Trump for reneging on his “anytime, anywhere” promise to debate. Trump appears weak. 

You can always count on Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to deliver a zinger. 

• “Tough talk is this guy’s calling card. And now there’s this extraordinary show of weakness… he agreed to this specific debate, on this specific network, on this specific date, and now he’s pulling out. It shows that he’s afraid.”

To be fair: He should be afraid of Harris, who has now been turned into the second coming by a media giddy about the possibility of the first Black woman president and more importantly, a “prosecutor” who can prosecute the “convicted felon.”

• One of the least reported stories of the Trump-Biden debate in June was how fair the moderators were… that won’t happen this time around. 

 A Trump-Harris debate changes every dynamic of a debate in Harris’ favor and Trump knows it. 

Trump’s handling of it only makes things worse. 

Replacing JD Vance

One time Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci asking, “How many Scaramuccis JD is gonna last,” is a funny thought coming from a guy who lasted 12 days in Trump’s employ but speaks to the larger issue of Vance’s implosion on the world stage. Some of these issues include: 

• His past comments about childless women
  • The clean up ain’t much better
• Seeming inauthentic on the stump 
• Republicans now actively questioning Trump’s pick 
• His cringeworthy on-camera pitches
• Tomi Lahren saying he is a loser. When a Republican loses Tomi Lahren, there isn’t much farther down to go. 

Hard truth: Like Biden’s age issue, Vance’s problem isn’t the cringeworthy tape archive, his stiffness on the stump or his lack of charisma, it’s that he can’t do anything about it. 

Zoom out: Vance follows in a long long line of people picked by Trump for the wrong reasons. 

• To be fair: The competition changed. Running against Biden-Harris is a lot different than running against Harris and whatever swing state governor or senator she picks as her running-mate.

Be fair: Harris in 2020 didn’t get anywhere near this type of scrutiny or the media would have endlessly screwed her with all the things we have shown you about her.  

Can Trump replace him is an open question, but for a media that just forced out Biden (a sitting president), forcing out a VP nominee seems like a smaller lift. 

• Trump is famous for firing people and never good at hiring really good people! 

Fair question: If Harris gets to reinvent herself (aka,. she was never the border czar), why can’t Vance? 

Life lessons: Like in golf, life ain’t fair. 

The Reinvention of Kamala Harris

Repeat after me: 

• Kamala Harris wasn’t the border czar 
• Harris never raised bail money for rioters in 2020. She did. 
• Harris was NOT the most liberal senator in 2019. She was, but the website GovTrack took down their rating 
• She is a brilliant tactician of international affairs responsible for improving America’s standing on the world stage 
• Her flirting with pro-Hamas language is just the voice of a woman who can bring about a two-state solution 

The Free Beacon published a helpful video for reference on these issues.

Collin Rugg outlines some of the other new truths we must all adhere to now that Harris is the nominee.

The dystopian world the media now presents of Harris is not much different than a few months ago when Joe Biden had the physical health of a 55-year-old and the mental acuity of a nuclear physicist.

Even USAToday pointed out the gaslighting of claims about Harris. 

I wonder what they will say about this clip of her saying, “We must object when they use the term radical Islamic terror or illegal alien.”

Team Trump is making the most of it.

But it’s getting in the way of pickup. 

Will Blacks Come Home for Kamala Harris?

Crosstabs of the latest New York Times poll show Harris doing better than Biden was — but not Obama levels better — with Black voters.

That’s still a problem for Harris if she wants to be the first Black female president. 

• More importantly, as Harry Enten of CNN shows us, Harris’s momentum isn’t what the media necessarily wants or reports it to be. 

Fact check: Yes, she is doing better than Biden. Yes the honeymoon is real. But it’s not catching fire. 

Watch tonight: Svante Myrick joins us to discuss the efforts by Black women to convince Black men to come back to the Democratic party.

• Joy Reid noted a fundraising group for Black men did quite well for Harris earlier this week. 

“(Insert group) for Harris:” True to their intersectional base, Team Harris wants to build various ethnic, gender, racial or sexual orientation groups for her campaign.

• Like “White Dudes for Harris” started by David Hogg.
  • Hogg writes, “We are honest, open and ready to support our first Black woman president.”
  • Hashtags we’ve seen: #WinWithBlackWomen, #WinWithBlackMen #OutForKamalaHarris and specifically directions for white women to #AnswerTheCall2024

Thought bubble: Nothing says uniting America like dividing us based on racial lines to support the alleged candidate meant to unite us. 

Can Harris Figure out the Jewish Question for Democrats?

The Hamas-Israel war in Gaza requires moral clarity. There is clear evil and those fighting, at times imperfectly, against evil. 

Democrats politically can’t see it that way — they must be: 

• For Israel, but against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
• Against Hamas but in favor of a cease-fire that leaves Hamas in power
• They don’t want innocent Palestinians killed but can’t define what an innocent Palestinian is 
• They want a two-state solution even though the Palestinians overwhelmingly don’t want one
• They must contend with the far left of their party, which routinely calls for the death of Jews
• The most helpful VP candidate for Kamala Harris (Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro) now faces an antisemitic social media campaign led by his own party: “No Genocide Josh.” 

Outspoken Israel defender Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., is one of the lone voices of moral clarity in the Democratic party. 

• On X, he wrote, “The antisemitic far left must never be given veto power over the selection of a presidential running mate.” 
• The fact that he has to say that means the antisemitic far left very well might have a veto. 

Jewish Insider has more on the anti-Shapiro angle.  

Kamala Harris’ statement after meeting with Netanyahu left the Israeli delegation fuming. 

• Barak Ravid reports in Axios the Israelis say Harris’ demands from Israel make a hostage deal less likely.
  • Thought bubble: The Obama, Biden and Harris foreign policy teams either hate Israel, do not fundamentally understand the Israeli psyche or both – and they don’t seem to care. It’s mind blowing. 

The rise of left wing antisemitism — not to mention the growing Muslim population in Europe — makes us think about the possibility of Paris 2024 turning into Munich 1972. Click here to see the posters up in Paris. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.