NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

Alert: Multiple reports indicate China’s war games surrounding Taiwan might be more than games, with a possible invasion in the coming week.

• Global Press Corp has some of the best video and audio on their X page. 
• Click here to see a map of “Joint Sword 2024A.”

Not yet: Smart people say this is China saber rattling while getting their army ready for an invasion in the next few years. 

• But look back:
  • The CIA missed Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan.
  • Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait first appeared to be an exercise.

Fair question: If you are Chinese President Xi Jinping and see polling showing Donald Trump’s likely victory in November … why WOULDN’T you invade now?

• Don’t: President Biden committed U.S. troops to defending Taiwan several times over the past few years.
  • That said, his past admissions of “don’t” to both allies and advisories carry zero credibility anymore. 

Biden’s Economy vs. Trump’s Abortion Policies

The Cook Political Report’s swing state polling shows what we told you six weeks ago: This is an economy vs. abortion election. 

• Spoiler alert: Swing state voters dislike Biden’s economic policies more than they fear Trump’s abortion policies.
  • Watch the MSNBC clip.
• Thought bubble: DUH! 

Zoom out: Abortion vs. economy works (on the margin) for almost all of the secondary cultural issues: climate, race, DEI and more. 

• Hence: Trump’s Bronx rally vs. Biden’s “Dire Threat” ads 
• The news: Trump will rally in the Bronx, a borough of New York City that went 15.9% for Trump and 83.4% for Biden in 2020.
• The Biden campaign put out radio and TV ads “highlighting the dire threat Donald Trump poses to Black America,” according to their press release.
  • Their ads are “Contempt” and “Knock Knock.”

Newsflash: Black and Hispanic Americans are just like other Americans. They feel poorer under Biden — life economically was better under Trump. 

• Perception is reality in politics. As we showed you yesterday, Americans feel as though the stock market is down, we are in a recession, and unemployment is at a 50-year high.
  • None of that is true, but it doesn’t matter.

Fact check: Trump isn’t going to win (by more than 50%) the Black and Brown vote, but he can make Biden fight for it.

• Reuters quotes a Fordham University political science professor saying, “I think it’s part of this larger narrative where he’s trying to chip away at Biden’s support amongst Black and Latino men, primarily. … By him going to the South Bronx, he can say ‘I’m talking to communities that Joe Biden is taking for granted.’”
• Political reality: Biden is making attempts to shore up his Black support, including his Morehouse College commencement speech telling Black Americans how much our country hates them.
  • Watch last night’s thoughts on the importance of offering hope. 

Warning: Republicans, especially Trump, can and might screw it up.

• In case you haven’t spent the past few days on right-wing Twitter (a scary place), Trump claims he “nearly escaped death” in a Biden administration assassination plot.
  • No, really, he said that. Our buddy Tommy Christopher has the write-up in Mediaite. 
  • Trump and his followers claim boilerplate language authorizing deadly force in the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid exposes a secret assassination plot.
    • Hint hint: Federal agents, just like the Secret Service agents who protect Trump, are always authorized to use deadly force when warranted. 
  • To be fair: Watching the Left melt down over this is pretty funny as well — and likely part of Trump’s plan.
    • Jim Acosta especially…
  • Erick Erickson lays out why this is so profoundly stupid of Trump and his followers in his newsletter: “While everyone on the right is distracted by a manufactured story, the truly outrageous story of the day is getting almost no attention.”
    • He is talking there about Biden’s release of gas from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to lower prices at the pump. At best, it’s a complete misuse of the SPR and at worst puts U.S. national security in jail. 
    • OR Republicans could be talking about another “forgiveness” of college loans that so angers working-class voters. Even NBC’s chief White House correspondent asked about it — watch the back and forth between him and Karine Jean-Pierre.
  • But no, Republicans can’t stop talking about a made-up “assassination plot” that makes them look stupid. 

“Blue Angels” the Movie

It will be cooler on the big screen, but you should watch the trailer for the new “Blue Angels” movie. It’s everything that’s right with America.

• Thought bubble: Is this the last bastion of the right stuff? Nobody wants to fly 6 inches from the wingtip of a DEI hire. The movie talks about precision and training and selection — all merit-based criteria. 
• And guess what — people want to watch it! 

Zoom out: “Revenge of the Normies,” wrote Martin Gurri in The Free Press a few days ago.

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.