NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. 

On the Road to Des Moines

Greetings from I-80. Your humble correspondent and our intrepid executive producer Federico Quadrani are en route to Des Moines for tonight’s show. War Notes Editor-in-Chief Katie Oglesby is with us as well and seriously reevaluating her life choices as we drive out of Omaha — the only open airport we could get to during the Caucus Blizzard of 2024. 

That is our way of saying that the weather will play a dominant role in every part of this year’s caucuses. 

Many candidates were forced to cancel their final campaign events today and possibly tomorrow due to 50 mph wind and being unable to drive in the snow.

By late Saturday, the deep cold will set in, with wind chills below minus-30 degrees by caucus night Monday.

Doors open for most caucuses at 5 p.m. CT in high school gyms and other similar spaces. 

Speeches will begin at 7 p.m. and then people write their preferred candidate’s names on a piece of paper. After, the pieces are counted. 

The Associated Press notes the Republican and Democratic caucuses are slightly different, given that namely the Democratic one doesn’t matter. 

Caucusing for your candidate requires a bit of effort including driving on the snowy and bitter cold night plus standing around and then afterward driving in the same weather home. 

Thus, Monday will be a great test of candidates’ organization and depth of support. 

Nothing turns out voters like believing your candidate is chosen by God, as many of Trump’s voters do. 

Sophia Cai with Axios shows the power of MAGA pastors who frame Trump as a messianic figure. 

• Cai quotes Joel Tenney, “a 27-year-old Iowan primarily known for his Armenian advocacy work,” saying at a recent Trump rally event in Iowa, “You cannot be Christian and vote for a Democrat.”

Watch tonight: Iowa Republican Chair Jeff Kaufman will be on with his predictions and evaluation of the campaigns’ ground games and the fun ways they “entice” supporters to brave the cold. We’ll also look at some of the most unusual caucus sites in Iowa’s rural farm country.

Roads Out of Iowa

At least one poll puts Nikki Haley up seven points on Ron DeSantis in Iowa.

That’s bad news for the Florida governor, who staked his entire presidential campaign on visiting all 99 counties and courting the state’s heavily evangelical voters, as mentioned above.

AND, it’s incredible news for Haley who has all but ignored the Hawkeye State until recent weeks. Her surge in New Hampshire combined with gaining a surprise second place in Iowa unquestionably changes the Republican primary fight. 

In that case, Trump will remain the front-runner, and an embarrassing third-place finish will cause DeSantis to drop out, leaving Trump and Haley facing off in New Hampshire where Haley has the “big mo.”

Charlie Mahtesian thoughtfully writes in Politico about Haley’s many, but difficult, paths to the nomination, saying, “If we’ve learned anything, it’s that the laws of political gravity or axioms about elected politics don’t always apply anymore. Traditional voting habits have been thrown out the window. Polling has proved unreliable. And yet here we are, again, operating with utter certainty that the GOP primary is already cooked.”

He goes on to concede Haley’s eventual victory is a long shot, but then again, so was Trump’s both for the nomination and the presidency at this time in 2016. 

However, the must-read piece of the day belongs, as it often does, to Jonathan Martin on Politico, who paints Haley’s campaign as arrogant, inaccessible and popular with college-educated Republicans, making her the perfect general election candidate with no chance at the nomination.

• Martin says, “The most consequential fault line in this race and in GOP politics broadly is based on class.”

All the above notwithstanding, Trump’s insurmountable lead in the polls could prove problematic, writes Adam Nagourney of The New York Times:

• “Mr. Trump has run as an incumbent, not even debating his opponents. His aides say they think he can set a record for an open race by finishing at least 12 points ahead of his nearest rival. And for Mr. Trump, that could be a problem.”
• Nagourney deftly gamed out the various Iowa possibilities. If you want to read it, this link is for a gift article where you won’t need a subscription to read it.

Upset possibility: Nagourney quotes Bob Vander Plaats, an Iowan evangelical leader who endorsed DeSantis, saying, “If you believe the ground game, there’s a potential (DeSantis) could upend the former president in Iowa. He has by far the best on-the-ground operation I’ve seen.”

Why is Biden Scared of Iran — Seriously? 

Last night’s presidential statement covering the quite restrained strike on Houthi rebels in Yemen failed to mention the real reason for the strike: Iran  (brain exploding emoji)

• Thought bubble: It’s difficult to defeat an enemy you won’t name.

Backstory: The Iran-backed, -supplied and -controlled Houthis fired dozens of drone bombs and anti-ship missiles at U.S. Navy vessels and commercial traffic over the past few weeks. Under President Joe Biden’s orders fearing an “escalation,” the Navy just shot down the incoming attacks at the costs of tens of millions of dollars worth of interceptors rather than attack the Houthi launch sites and weapons storage facilities. 

It’s unclear how extensively the United States and United Kingdom’s attacks seriously degrade the Houthis’ ability to attack ships in the Red Sea and thus shut down 10% of the world’s commerce. 

From Biden’s statement: “These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes.” 

• Wait, what?! How about the mullahs? How about the continued attacks against U.S. bases and personnel in Iraq and Syria? How about the Houthis taking a U.S.-linked oil tanker yesterday? The statement bent over backward to downplay the strikes and not ruffle any feathers in Tehran. 

Victory laps are unfulfilling, but as predicted over and over in War Notes, the Biden administration’s fear of provoking a wider war by using American strength only raises the risks of a wider war. 

• Biden and team still haven’t given up the Obama ghost of buying Iran’s good behavior with billions and turning a blind eye to its continued mission of embarrassing the United States, killing Americans and gaining a nuclear weapon. 

Now we wait. The U.S. Sun writes that the Houthis vow revenge. What will Tehran order them to do?

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.