NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 28 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3.3, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • Polymarket betting odds: 52.6 to 46.7 in favor of Trump. 

Programming note: No show tonight — we are broadcasting the Michigan Senate debate (Slotkin vs. Rogers). I’ll see you tomorrow. 

Milton!

Having waited on desolate beaches for enough hurricanes, I know the next few hours in Western Florida will take on an eerie calm. 

• And then BOOM.
• It’s impossible to understate the power of a 12-foot storm surge and 155 mph winds.
  • Depending on the exact landfall, the dirty side of the storm could shove water farther up and into Tampa than ever before. 
  • Warning: Police stop responding at 45 mph winds.
    • People who stay are on their own. 
    • The mayor of Tampa said that if you stay, you will die.
• The destruction will take years to recover from.
  • Many of those who lose their house will be left without insurance.
  • Much of Florida’s west coast will look like a war zone – I say that having been to a lot of war zones. 
• Wait for it: The coming “politicization” of the storm borders on pathetic.
  • The misery in North Carolina rightly points to an administration worried, focused on and spending on the wrong things. 
  • Calling questions about priorities, spending and missteps “misinformation,” as Karine Jean-Pierre did yesterday, only makes things worse. 
  • But no, people are saying FEMA is confiscating aid …
    • FEMA, according to The New York Times, doesn’t have enough people to staff Hurricane Milton, much less confiscate aid.
  • Biden knows: The president canceling his foreign trip is a tacit admission that his administration screwed up both the response and the optics of the response after Hurricane Helene.
    • They can’t make the same mistake twice.  

What Can Change?

There’s exactly four weeks until Election Day, and Democrats are asking themselves what can change.

• Something must change for Vice President Kamala Harris to reverse Trump’s sudden and dramatic momentum.
  • Bright spot: As our friend Chris Cillizza points out, Harris now leads in a New York Times poll both overall and in the category of which candidate represents “change.”
    • 2024 is weird: Voters see the sitting vice president as the agent of change even though she told “The View” she wouldn’t have done anything different than President Biden. 
  • As The Wall Street Journal notes, working-class voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin continue to move toward Trump.
    • Bad optics: How is she going to campaign as the sitting vice president through the upper Midwest when Florida and North Carolina are in disaster mode? 
  • NBC News notes a major shift from Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania.
• Look forward: Other than The New York Times poll above, most polls suggest Harris needs something in the next 28 days.
  • Calling Trump racist on “60 Minutes” won’t change the momentum. 
  • You aren’t going to see a lot more of Doug Emhoff. Since Jen Psaki fawned over his redefining of masculinity on MSNBC, The Daily Mail reports he’s barely a few steps above Harvey Weinstein. 
  • There isn’t a lot more Harris can promise. 
  • She isn’t going to get “better” at interviews. 
  • So how does Harris get a win between now and Nov. 5?
    • To be fair: She might not need one.
    • Iron rule of politics: Never underestimate Republicans’ (especially Trump’s) ability to screw things up. 

Earned Mistrust

For all the hand-wringing in D.C. and at Hamptons cocktail parties about “misinformation” and lack of trust in the experts, media and establishment, the current crisis at CBS News explains everything:

• Tony Dokoupil interviewed Ta-Nehisi Coates about his new book on the Israel-Palestine conflict — I say “book,” but in reality, it’s only a slightly more veiled version of “Mein Kampf.” But I digress.
• Evidently, CBS employees thought Dokoupil went too hard on Coates, and wait for it … CBS management took the employees’ side.
  • Fact check: When I first heard about it, I thought CBS employees were mad that Dokoupil didn’t go after Coates harder … silly me. 
• What I am reading: The Free Press’ write-up with tapes from the CBS meetings.
• What I am hearing:
  • As our good friend Erick Erickson writes, now CBS is bringing in a DEI strategist to help employees cope with the trauma.
  • Evidently, the mere questioning of antisemitic bile is too much for some CBS employees to deal with. 
  • And yet as a good friend pointed out to me,“Trump is criticized for not doing a ‘news’ show on CBS … what a world.”

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.